It’s all about NVIDIA’s report after the close

Briefing.com Summary:

• The spotlight is on NVIDIA, which will report its quarterly results after the close.
• A curve-steepening trade persists in the Treasury market.
• MongoDB is soaring after its earnings report; and several other stocks are up nicely after their results.

After Fed Chair Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole last week, the next “big thing” for the market was deemed to be NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings report. That report will be released after the close today, and it looks like the market has managed a perfectly executed wait-and-see trade.

Entering today, the S&P 500 is down 0.02% for the week, and NVIDIA is up 2.1%, so it is fair to say investors in NVIDIA aren’t as guarded about what they will hear from NVIDIA as investors in the broader market are.

The reason being is that NVIDIA has the weight to move the broader market in a big way based on its results and outlook. It has the weight to influence the AI trade, which has been a major driver of the stock market and a major driver of the momentum-fueled trading that has found its way to other parts of the market.

So, what NVIDIA reports and forecasts will be hugely important, but equally important will be the reaction to what the company reports and forecasts. Stay tuned. That reaction function will be a big driver of Thursday’s trading.

In the meantime, the market is biding its time, finding some welcome distractions in the earnings results from MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA), Kohl’s (KSS), PVH Corp (PVH), and Box, Inc. (BOX), all of which are trading higher in pre-market action. MDB is the real standout in that respect, up 30% after a blowout report and FY26 EPS guidance that was well ahead of the FactSet consensus estimate.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and J.M. Smucker (SJM), meanwhile, are trading like peanut butter and jelly, down 3.4% and 4.0%, respectively, in the wake of their earnings reports.

The equity futures market, though, pretty much says it all. There is no conviction at the index level in front of NVIDIA’s report.

The S&P 500 futures are down two points and are trading in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down six points and are trading in line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down nine points and are trading in line with fair value.

The Treasury market is a little more active, continuing a steepening trade driven by short-term rates coming down and long-term rates moving up. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.65%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.28%.

This is a trade that is rooted presumably in an outlook for rate cuts in the short term and potentially inflation and/or the budget deficit sticking at higher levels for the long term. The steepening has coincided with recent inflation reports and recent efforts to repopulate the Fed Board of Governors.

New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter), for his part, told CNBC that it would be appropriate to lower interest rates over time if the data move as he expects, but that the Fed has to be driven by data.

There will be a $70 billion 5-yr note auction today, with results at 1:00 p.m. ET.

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Originally Posted on August 27, 2025 – It’s all about NVIDIA’s report after the close