On Wednesday, the release of the weekly economic index on the subsequent day was expected to reflect that activity is reaccelerating in the current quarter even as oil prices and interest rates are elevated compared to a few months ago. The last four of five weeks have produced results north of 2.6% and forecasters expected a figure at that level once again with a 59% probability. Meanwhile, the last two of four weeks have come in above 2.8%, and participants on Wednesday had priced the “Yes” at 24% for the upcoming print. Under, however, there was just a 21% likelihood of a number equal to or less than 2.4%.
Subdued Layoffs Expected
Similarly, initial unemployment claims were expected on Wednesday to remain subdued, reflecting healthy labor and economic conditions. Forecasters were looking for another number around 210k, with the “Yes” at that threshold priced at $0.53 after last week’s print came in at 207k. Over and under, the 220k “Yes” and the 200k “No” were going for $0.18 and $0.16. Economist expectations were anchored well to 210k as well, which was the median estimate in the weekly Reuters poll against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 205k and 220k.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highets bids as of the morning of April 22, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of the morning of April 22, 2026.
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