Friday UMich “Yeses” Contracts Undervalued at $0.09 and $0.40 in My Opinion: July 30, 2026

The Friday, July 31, University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index release represents the final read after the preliminary came in at 54.4 on Friday, July 17. Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Thursday, July 30, expected a sizable downward revision as it pertained to the Friday’s adjustment, as gasoline prices had risen significantly since the first print and Wall Street volatility had increased, a combination which was likely to have further dampened household moods. But the historical changes of the pair of reports have been modest looking through 2015, as the absolute median and average shifts are only 0.7 and 0.97 in either direction, signaling that a downgrade was not likely to fall under 53, which would require a subtraction heavier than 1.4. Meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 52 and 54 are going for what I consider to be undervalued costs of $0.40 and $0.09 as of Thursday and choosing the two selections would deliver $2.00 back on a figure greater than or equal to 54.1 or a $1.00 return on a number at 52.1 or higher.

EU CPI Was Expected to Rise To 2.9%

Also on Thursday, July’s eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to accelerate from 2.8% to 2.9% in the Friday, July 31, release. Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the 2.9% “Yes” at just $0.05, signaling a 5% chance of a number that arrives hotter-than-anticipated. That was undervalued in my opinion as a modest upside beat is always in the cards for this indicator and emblematic of this possibility was the monthly Reuters poll of 43 forecasters carrying minimum and maximum projections of 2.7% and 3.2% amidst a 2.9% median. Under, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 2.8%, 2.7% and 2.6% are going for $0.64, $0.87 and $0.91.

Hong Kong GDP Expected Around 4.5%

Hong Kong’s second quarter GDP was expected on Thursday to print a year-over-year result around 4.5%, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 15 forecasters. But there was a wide range of potential outcomes for this specific release, as the survey carried minimum and maximum projections of 2.8% and 5.9%. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the “Yeses” at 3% and 5% at $0.89 and $0.15, signaling a high degree of confidence of a number between those two thresholds. While the preliminary figure was scheduled for a July 31 release, this contract settles on the final publication, which is scheduled for August 14.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 30, 2026. 

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