Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026

Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat volatile in recent months with its year-over-year (y/y) February result climbing from 1.1% in January to 1.7%, a result, in large part, of differences in the Chinese New Year dates during this year and in 2025. This February CPI ascent was driven, in large part, by the inflationary impact of the holiday occurring that month and a low base comparison because the festival resulting price pressures happened in January of last year. 

Even without the inflationary influences of the Chinese New Year, the March CPI as of Wednesday was unlikely to ease significantly from the 1.7% print. On Wednesday, the IBKR prediction market contract with a “Yes” answer that asked if the CPI would exceed a threshold 1.2% was priced at $0.80, which would pay $1 if correct. A deceleration to that degree, in my opinion, is unlikely. Consider the following:

• Of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters, the median forecast as of Wednesday was 1.8% and the minimum anticipated result was only 1.4%, significantly above the 1.2% contract threshold. 
• The February CPI was immune from soaring oil and gas costs that started last month as a result of the US-Iran war.
• The prediction market also had contracts with “Yes” answers for thresholds of 1.7% and 2.2% that were priced at $0.28 and $0.03.

Singapore “Yeses” Also Attractive

Also, as of Wednesday, the Singapore CPI was expected to arrive near 1.8% after coming in at 1.3% in February, according to the median estimate of 19 forecasters surveyed by Reuters. The IBKR prediction market contract asking if the CPI will come in north of 1.5% had a “Yes” answer priced at only $0.27. With higher energy prices, the lowest and highest estimate among the 19 analysts polled by Reuters was 1.3% and 2.1%. A reading above 1.5%, in my view, was highly likely due to higher energy costs.

Japan CPI Likely Accelerated as Well

Japan’s March CPI, likewise, was poised to increase due to higher energy costs. In February, the gauge fell from 112.9 in January to 112.1. Even if higher energy costs were offset by declines in the prices of other categories, it looked highly probable on Wednesday that the gauge would exceed the 112 threshold found in the Interactive Brokers prediction market contract that with a “Yes” answer that was priced at only $0.75. The prediction market also had contracts with “Yes” answers that had thresholds of 112.8 and 113.6 and were both priced at $0.03.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 22, 2026. Time until contraction expiration was also as of the morning of April 22, 2026. 

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Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.