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Bank of Canada Expected To Hold and Prioritize Weak Economy Over Elevated Inflation: June 8, 2026

Bank of Canada Expected To Hold and Prioritize Weak Economy Over Elevated Inflation: June 8, 2026

Posted June 9, 2026 at 10:30 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

On Monday, Canadian central bankers were expected to hold their benchmark rate steady for the fifth consecutive time when they meet this Wednesday, June 10, as officials prioritize a weak economy over elevated inflation. There was a 98% degree of confidence tied to a pause, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, with the “No” at the current 2.25% level going for $0.98 on Monday. Despite the nation’s Consumer Price Index hitting 2.8% in April, sluggish activity has contained the spread of higher energy costs, as the core segment sank to a 16-month low of 2.1%. Additionally, the economy has contracted for two quarters in a row, placing the country in a technical recession. In light of cost forces that are isolated to fuel at this point against the backdrop of a cycle that is in danger of deteriorating further, policymakers have chosen a wait-and-see approach in part to avoid job losses.

Pricing of IBKR prediction market contract regarding Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

Source for images: ForecastEx Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 8, 2026. 

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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

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