The Wednesday release of the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the US was expected to climb 4.2% year over year (y/y), the highest in 37 months, or since April 2023, as heavier energy costs from the Middle East war have been driving the indicator north. This gauge is well telegraphed by Wall Street and has a narrow range of potential outcomes with the monthly Reuters poll of 47 forecasters having minimum and maximum estimates of 4.1% and 4.3% as of Tuesday. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 4.1%, 4.2% and 4.3% were priced at $0.93, $0.43 and $0.08 during the day before the CPI release.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Housing To Weigh on Core
But the slower moving core segment, which excludes food and energy prices due to their volatility, was projected on Tuesday to be 3% at 2.9% y/y, as it takes a few months for elevated fuel costs to begin spreading more broadly to goods and services. Additionally, heavy interest rates and immigration restriction have weighed on rent growth and residential valuations, against the backdrop of shelter comprising the largest component of the CPI. The softening real estate sector is offsetting some of the lift in gasoline prices. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, meanwhile, saw a 53% possibility of a result ahead of 2.8% as of Tuesday, amidst the “Yeses” at 2.6% and 3% going for $0.97 and $0.04. Similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 49 forecasters featured minimum and maximum expectations of 2.8% and 3%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 8, 2026.
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