The two-and-half day trading period leading up to mid-day Thursday featured total ForecastTrader volumes of approximately 5.3 million and the activity was broad-based across topics. Daily high temperatures across US cities continue to command an elevated share of transactions, but we also saw two distinct block trades for January’s Fed decision on Tuesday morning amounting to single exchanges of 20k and 10k contracts. Both “Yeses” went through at $0.96 as investors are confident the central bank will hold at its meeting this month. Instruments tied to the price performances of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and Ethereum also caught strong bids. Currency pairs additionally saw action, with participants engaging mostly with the US Dollar as it compares to the Canadian and Japanese counterparts. Other popular series in the past three days have been the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs and who will be nominated as the next Fed Chair.
Industrial Production
On Thursday, US Industrial production was expected to decelerate from 1.9% year over year to 1.56% and the path to a number exceeding 2%, in my view, was particularly slim, requiring a monthly expansion of almost six times the 0.1% month over month estimate. The “No” for the 2% threshold on Thursday was priced at $0.33.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 15, 2026. Time until expiration of contracts was also as of Jan. 15, 2026. To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here
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