Forecasters on Monday priced the risk of a US recession by year-end at 38% as the Iran war has sparked nervousness regarding elevated energy costs that all else being equal, reduced capacity for households and corporates alike to spend and invest in other areas of the economy. There are also worries that the Federal Reserve will need to reverse from its easing cycle and begin to hike rates in order to keep inflationary pressures in check, and that has lifted slowdown angst as well. Additionally, firms may not be able to pass on higher fuel charges to stretched consumers, and that could have adverse impacts to margins and hiring, serving to cloud the outlook for overall transactions and capital expenditures. The “Yes” would pay out $1.00 if there are two consecutive quarters of annualized declines in the final reads of US gross domestic product, which constitute a technical recession. The contract does not require an NBER declared recession for settlement.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 23, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of the morning of March 23, 2026.
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