Increasingly fragile labor conditions have raised the odds of the US Federal Reserve reducing its key interest rate next week, but persistent inflationary forces and elevated wage pressures have officials in Tokyo looking in the opposite direction in bifurcated fashion. Indeed, one is poised to continue cruising south while the other is geared to sail north. Emblematic of the distinct paths are chances of a Fed cut rising from just 26% on Nov. 20 to 87% on Tuesday, Dec. 2; however, the probability of a hike from the Bank of Japan climbed from 46% on Nov. 27 to 79%. Open contracts tied to both meetings have been popular amongst participants, totaling 310k, with decisions scheduled on the 10th and 19th of this month.
Fed Trading Was Especially Active Yesterday
Monday’s trading on ForecastEx featured two block trades of 10k contracts or more related to Fed decisions, with the top trade in volume terms throughout all instruments totaling 20.32k. Furthermore, across 140 Fed trades, the number of overall contracts transacted were 61.47k on Dec. 1.
Wasn’t Just Fed Funds Being Traded However
Other themes being traded heavily included the daily high temperatures across major US cities and the performance of bitcoin. Total volumes throughout all of our offerings totaled 2.78 million on Dec. 1.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 2, 2025. Expiration dates are also as of Dec. 2, 2025, New York time.
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