Excuses and Reasons

Today’s Soundtrack: Head East

The basic rationale for today’s rally should be self-evident.  After yesterday’s close, the President once again extended the ceasefire with Iran, this time indefinitely.  That announcement immediately erased about half of yesterday’s losses, then as is now typical, pre-market futures steadily improved as the morning progressed.  Considering that there was a widespread expectation that the ceasefire would be renewed despite another round of threats against Iranian infrastructure, it appears that we only need an excuse for a rally – not a full-fledged reason.

Yesterday, while noting the modest rises in oil futures and bond yields, we wrote:

Those are not moves that indicate market expectations for a resumption of outright hostility but instead demonstrate concerns about an ongoing stalemate. —

Indeed, while the first expectation was correct – there was no resumption of outright hostility – we had renewed reason to be concerned about an ongoing stalemate today when reports emerged that Iran had fired upon as many as three ships in the Strait of Hormuz.  That didn’t seem to matter.  Stocks barely blinked, though they did get a boost when the President teased another bout of “good news” about another round of peace talks as soon as Friday. 

Actual peace talks are less necessary than the prospect of more talks.  They have acted as a lure for investors since the rally started, and it would not surprise me in the least if news-reading algorithms are now programmed to send buy orders when stories about talks hit the wires.  It certainly seems as though traders are doing that manually, so why wouldn’t machines do the same?

Remember that both traders’ mindsets and the algorithms that mimic them are subject to change.  There was a very tight inverse correlation between oil futures and stock indices.  When one rose, the other fell, and vice versa.  Today, however, we saw oil futures lifting by 3-4% after the Iranian naval action in the Strait, yet stocks not only failed to flinch – they rose.  That would seem to be a reason for at least a bit of incremental concern, but alas, not.

Perceptions of improved prospects for the current earnings season, particularly concerning tech stocks, are now a primary driver of enthusiasm.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been up every day this month; even on the rare days when the S&P 500 (SPX) or Nasdaq 100 (NDX) have declined, SOX did not. Software stocks stumbled early, but have now rallied consistently since last Monday.   Improved earnings are indeed an excellent reason for stocks to rally and for valuations to expand.

So far, most companies that have reported have beaten consensus estimates.  But that is the norm.  Also, only a small subset of the tech sector has yet to come to the fore.  The more we continue to rally on the same theme, the higher the risk that investor expectations – as opposed to analyst estimates – get so elevated that they become difficult to beat.  Uncertainty about the economic outlook stemming from Middle East uncertainty might offer corporate managers a unique opportunity to skirt uncomfortable questions about forward guidance.  Remember, beating consensus estimates is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a post-earnings rally.  Solid guidance is the sufficient condition.  And a heck of a good reason, not an excuse, for a stock’s performance.

In a final, somewhat related note, today’s theme song, “Never Been Any Reason”, became more widely known because of its prominent role in the soundtrack to the 1993 film “Dazed and Confused.”  As we noted earlier this week, the movie title is an apt description of many investors’ attitudes about the current market activity, both during the war-related decline and subsequent rally to new highs.  For better or worse, many of them are roughly the demographic portrayed in that ‘90s view of ‘70s nostalgia.