With investors around the world contemplating how the recent surge in energy costs will affect monetary policy decisions by central banks, Australia’s policymakers on Monday were expected to hike for the second consecutive time during a meeting on the subsequent day. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a 74% chance that Sydney would raise its key interest rate by another 25 basis points. Subdued unemployment, ongoing job growth and inflation at 3.8% were believed to be motivating the restriction in financial conditions. And while fixed-income observers in the US still expect a cut from the Federal Reserve this year, rumors have it that policymakers in London and Frankfurt are apparently getting ready to potentially lift their benchmarks in response to the jump in crude oil prices, which especially hurts UK and EU nations dependent on imports of energy commodities.
US Gasoline to Surge
Speaking of climbing energy costs, participants think that the average US gasoline price will exceed a weekly average of $3.80 near the end of the month with a 65% degree of confidence. Charges were at $3.50 as of the week ended March 9 and the level of $3.80 hasn’t been breached in two-and-a-half years, since September 2023.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 16, 2026. Times until market closing were also as of the morning of March 16, 2026.
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