Click to view the earnings moves in DLTR
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Dollar Tree’s Earnings Day Slide: What History Tells Us
Dollar Tree (DLTR) took a sharp turn lower today, plunging -9.7% right after reporting its first quarter fiscal 2025 earnings. For investors who track earnings trends, today’s move likely rings a familiar bell—because DLTR’s stock has a strong history of making outsized moves on earnings days.
How Does Today Stack Up to History?
According to historical data, DLTR has averaged a -6.9% return on the day of earnings over the last 12 quarters. Notably, only a third (33.3%) of earnings days finished positive, while two-thirds (66.7%) were down days. The initial gap—measured from previous close to opening price—has also averaged a -5.5% move, with 75% of those gaps heading lower.
For those looking for a bounce during the day, DLTR’s historical open-to-close return has averaged -1.5%, showing that rallies from the open tend to fizzle. The average move to the day’s high is +3.2%, while the drop to the day’s low averages -4.5%, underlining a persistent bias to the downside.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | -6.9% | -5.5% | +3.2% | -4.5% | -1.5% |
| % of Moves Up | 33.3% | 25.0% | 41.7% | ||
| % of Moves Down | 66.7% | 75.0% | 58.3% |
Past performance is not indicative of future results
For even more stats and in-depth analysis, visit the full historical earnings page here.
Options Traders Nailed the Move—But Where Do We Go From Here?
It wasn’t just equity investors who braced for volatility. Heading into earnings, the options market was pricing in an expected move of ±9.2% in either direction—and DLTR landed right inside those expectations. Today’s total option volume surged to 52,726 contracts, spotlighting how much attention the earnings event was getting.
Most Actively Traded Option Contract
| Option Contract | 06-Jun-25 90 C |
| Volume | 1,463 |
| VWAP price | 1.23 |
| Open interest | 782 |
| Yesterday’s closing price | 8.18 |
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The clear standout today was the June 6th, 2025 $90 call, traded 1,463 times (well above its open interest). Despite DLTR trading at $87.24 after earnings, these calls changed hands at an average price of just $1.23—down dramatically from their previous close of $8.18, a reminder of just how quickly option premium can disappear post-event.
What Happens After Earnings? A Look at Post-Earnings Trends
While the average one-day post-earnings return is a modest +0.8%, the trend gets weaker as the days pass: +0.2% two days after, turning into -0.2% three days after, and -0.9% one week later. In fact, upward moves after earnings are less common, with less than 37% of 1- and 2-week periods posting gains.
| Stock Performance | 1 Day After Earnings | 2 Days After Earnings | 3 Days After Earnings | 1 Week After Earnings | 2 Weeks After Earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average Return | +0.8% | +0.2% | -0.2% | -0.9% | -0.1% |
| % of Moves Up | 36.4% | 54.5% | 27.3% | 27.3% | 36.4% |
| % of Moves Down | 63.6% | 45.5% | 72.7% | 72.7% | 63.6% |
Past performance is not indicative of future results
How Big Can the Swings Get?
When it comes to the magnitude of earnings day swings, DLTR can move big—regardless of direction. The average absolute earnings move is 8.8%, and past moves have ranged as high as 22.2% in either direction.
| Stock Performance | Earnings Move | Open Gap | Open to High | Open to Low | Open to Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Absolute Average Return | 8.8% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.5% |
| Max Absolute Return | 22.2% | 13.8% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 12.8% |
| Min Absolute Return | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Takeaway for Investors
DLTR’s history of sharp earnings-day moves, with a notable bias to the downside, suggests today’s reaction is far from unusual. The options market had already braced for this possibility, and the overwhelming interest in short-term, out-of-the-money calls reveals some traders were still hunting for an upside surprise. With DLTR reiterating its sales outlook but trimming EPS guidance, plus ongoing uncertainty around the Family Dollar sale, volatility may stick around.
If you’re eyeing future moves, remember that post-earnings rebounds in DLTR have historically been weak—and that volatility can work both ways. For a deeper dive into DLTR’s earnings trends, check the historical stock performance around earnings page.
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Originally Posted June 4, 2025 – DLTR Drops 9.7% on Earnings: Is This Just Another Typical Earnings Selloff?
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