Monday’s Predictive Market Expectations for US PPI and Gasoline Prices: April 13, 2026

On Monday, I anticipated that the following day’s release of March Producer Price Index (PPI) would show a 4.6% increase, but the Interactive Brokers prediction market contract with a “Yes” answer for a result above 3.8% was priced at $0.35, which would deliver almost a triple on a result of 3.9% or higher. For context, February’s print was 3.4%, and the PPI’s closer watched cousin, the Consumer Price Index, featured a year-over-year figure that rose 90 basis points throughout the same time period, from 2.4% to 3.3%, signaling that a substantial annualized increase was likely for the month-over-month PPl. Furthermore, the PPI is even more sensitive to rising fuel and goods costs, by the way, and should reflect a stronger acceleration, considering that services were relatively tame in the CPI. Meanwhile, of the 19 economists surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, most would agree, as the median was 4.7% on Monday against the backdrop of minimum and maximum forecasts of 3.4% and 5.9%. Personally, I don’t know what the 3.4% entry was all about as I can’t see a path to an unchanged result. The IBKR predictive markets also offered “Yeses” at 3.4% and 3.6% thresholds that as of Monday were priced at $0.78 and $0.58.

Gas Prices Likely Rose For 13^th Consecutive Week

Retail gasoline prices on Monday were expected to have climbed for the 13th consecutive week, as heavy crude oil costs continue to drive pain at the pump. The seven-day period ended on April 6 saw a result of $4.12, and on Monday, the Interactive Brokers prediction market placed a 78% chance of a figure exceeding $4.10 for the time span culminating on April 13. However, there was only a 4% probability of a number arriving north of $4.20, as participants expected a level around $4.18 in the Tuesday morning publication. 

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 13, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of April 13, 2026. 

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