During Thursday morning, investors anticipated that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) would keep interest rates unchanged when it met in the afternoon as fixed-income observers called the end of the institution’s easing cycle. The nation is navigating inflation that is still too elevated amidst a slowing economy, and although the next move is anticipated to be a hike, the monetary policy authority is poised to proceed with caution to avoid further denting growth. Price pressures have been hovering at 3.55%, exceeding the official target of 3%; however, they are projected to decelerate sharply because fuel charges have sunk, hitting February lows this morning. During Thursday morning, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced a 95% chance of a pause and an approximate 5% likelihood of policymakers enacting another cut following the 25-basis point trim in May.
UMich Upward Revision Expected
Also on Thursday, investors anticipated that the following day’s final consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan (UMich) would feature an upward revision from 48.9. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the “Yes” 50 at $0.60, indicating a projected value around 50.5 when taking the “Yeses” at 48 and 52 into account; they’ were priced at $0.84 and $0.13 as of Thursday. This indicator is highly influenced by gas prices and the recent plunge in energy costs that occurred within the 14-day gap between the preliminary and updated publications is poised to drive an improvement. Additionally, rising optimism about peace in the Middle East is also likely to have lifted household moods.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 25, 2026.
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