Briefing.com Summary:
- Monday weakness reversed
- President Trump offers encouragement, saying war could be over soon
- 3-Yr Note auction this afternoon
The stock market had a tough start to the week on Monday, but ultimately recovered from the early pressure as crude oil backtracked from its highest level since mid-2022. Monday’s intraday rebound will be put to a test today, considering futures on the S&P 500 trade 14 points below fair value after a night that saw gains in equity markets in Asia and Europe.
Yesterday’s intraday bounce received encouragement from a pullback in the price of oil, which continued during the overnight session. WTI crude is down $6.91, or 7.3%, at $87.87/bbl, trading about $3/bbl below its settlement level from last week. President Trump offered some reassurances last evening, saying that the U.S. military campaign in Iran is ahead of target and could be over soon. The president also said that he is considering taking over the Strait of Hormuz, where France is reportedly setting up a ship escort mission to normalize traffic through the chokepoint.
The market will remain attentive to Iran-related headlines, though price action in the oil market will help shape overall sentiment, given the limited flow of economic data.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which was released this morning, showed a dip to 98.8 (Briefing.com consensus 99.5) from 99.3, while the 10:00 ET release of the Existing Home Sales report for February (Briefing.com consensus 3.88 mln; prior 3.91 mln) is expected to show a deceleration in the pace of sales.
Later in the day, the U.S. Treasury will kick off this week’s note and bond auction slate with a $58 bln 3-yr note sale at 13:00 ET. Treasuries are mixed this morning with relative strength up front and some underperformance in the long bond while the 10-yr yield is down one basis point at 4.13%.
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