Stocks, Gold, Silver Reach All-Time Highs Again on Buoyant Outlook, Widening Monetary Differences: Dec. 26, 2025

On the day following Christmas, stocks, silver and gold are trading at record highs as a buoyant economic outlook supports robust earnings expectations, but worries that the Fed may cut too much next year are driving store-of-value bids for the safe-haven metals. It’s a Friday with subdued volumes and an empty session regarding data releases. Still, investors are seeking to extend a Santa Claus rally to try and reach the 7k milestone on the S&P 500. Sector participation is depressed, however, as just materials and technology are appreciating amongst the 11 major equity sectors. The greenback is gaining slightly even as the yield curve descends modestly in bull-steepening motion, led by the monetary policy sensitive shorter maturities. Elsewhere, copper is rallying on global supply concerns and natural gas is advancing, although crude oil and lumber are retreating. .

Liquidity Could Counter Risks in 2026

An elevated chance that the Democrats will flip the House in 2026 is raising the likelihood of fiscal support to the economy as the GOP looks to win over the constituency. The potential for $2,000 checks to be sent to households as stimulus this spring is poised to broaden economic performance in the short term, offering a break to low- and middle-income families that have been pressured by worsening affordability. But another way the Republican party will try to swing the odds towards its favor is by advocating for a regime of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve. These dynamics occur against the backdrop of above-target inflation and a cycle that is picking up steam, which are tailwinds to corporate earnings. The developments can effectively neutralize the two major risks going into next year of the possibility of weaker-than-expected returns from massive artificial intelligence investments as well as the danger of an uptick in joblessness.

International Roundup

Japan Industrial Production Falls

Industrial production in Japan slipped more than expected last month but output for October was revised upward, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A preliminary estimate points to production falling 2.6% month over month (m/m), considerably worse than the economist consensus estimate for a decline of 1.9%. However, October’s result was revised upward to 1.5%. In November, production, shipments and inventories declined 2.6%, 1.6% and 3%, respectively. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintains that industrial production fluctuates indecisively on a monthly basis. It also reported that the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing points to m/m increases of 1.3% and 8% in December and January.

Japan Retailers Experience 1% Sales Increase

Retail sales in Japan climbed 1% year over year (y/y) in November, a deceleration from 1.7% in the preceding month but above the 0.9% economist consistence estimate. Among large retailers, sales climbed 0.6% m/m and 5% y/y compared to 1.6% and 5% in October.

Japan Headline Inflation Eases Slightly

Retail prices in Japan climbed 1.5% y/y in December after ascending 1.6% in last month, according to the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s Consumer Price Index.

Within Tokyo, the CPI was up 2% y/y, a notable decline from 2.7% in November. The Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes items with more volatile prices, also moderated, posting a 2.3% gain. Economists expected the gauge to climb 2.5% after November’s 2.8% growth.

Singapore Industrial Production Falls Relative to October

Industrial production sank 10.2% m/m in November but was still up 14.3% y/y, according to Statistics Singapore. The economist consensus estimate anticipated a 14.2% y/y gain following October’s 28.9% jump.

The biomedical manufacturing category and the transport engineering group led the y/y result with gains of 79.3% and 24.2%. The following categories, the extent of their growth, also supported the overall print:

• Electronics, 8.9%
• Precision engineering, 2.4%
• Chemicals, 2.2%

General manufacturing was the only detractor for the y/y result, declining 4.8%.