On Thursday, the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Friday was expected to jump above 3% for the first time since May 2024, as the surge in gasoline costs sparked by the Middle East conflict spreads across the economy. The median estimate for the headline statistic was 3.3%, but the range of potential outcomes was particularly wide, as the peak expectation of the 44 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll was at an elevated 4%. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers prediction market anticipated a number north of 3% with a 96% degree of confidence, while odds for a figure that fails to exceed 3.5% was at 92%.
Core CPI Expected Around 2.6%, 2.7%
The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, was expected on Thursday to land around 2.6% or 2.7% as part of the Friday data release. The Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a number that would not exceed 2.7% at 82%. Looking over and under, odds of a statistic coming in higher than 2.4% was at 95% while a figure below 3.1%, or failing to come in above 3%, was going for 95%.
German Flash Estimate Came in at 124.47
Turning to Germany, Friday’s revision to the flash March CPI was expected on Thursday to arrive near the 124.47 originally reported, as the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it typically arrives close to estimates and its preliminary reading. The Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a result above 124 at 86%, while one at or below 124.5 was at 88%. The “Yes” at 123.5 and the “No” at 125 were going for $0.91 and $0.95, against the backdrop. The effects of rounding could be critical here ladies and gentlemen.
Canadian Unemployment Is Historically Volatile
The Canadian unemployment rate is historically volatile and can deliver significant surprises. Friday’s March figure was expected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8%, according to the Reuters monthly poll of 15 forecasters. However, the minimum and maximum values stand at 6.6% and 6.9%, indicating the possibility for a sizeable miss on projections. The 6.6% threshold in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, priced the “Yes” at $0.59 and the “No” at $0.39 as of Thursday.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 9, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of April 9, 2026.
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