Traders Point to ECB and Banxico Pausing on Thursday: Feb. 4, 2026 

Shortly after Australia’s central bank hiked its key rate on Tuesday, Feb. 3, monetary policy institutions in Europe and Mexico were expected to keep their rates unchanged on Thursday, Feb. 4. IBKR ForecastTrader participants placed a 95% probability that each would maintain their rates even as the former saw its inflation drop well below its 2% target Wednesday morning to 1.7%, and the latter reduced its benchmark in the 12 consecutive meetings through December. The ECB is managing slowing price pressures, expansionary conditions and a stronger Euro, which may compel a risk management adjustment toward easing at a meeting in the near future. Banxico, meanwhile, is dealing with a landscape that narrowly avoided recession last year amidst cost forces that are at 3.7%, exceeding its 3% objective. Indeed, the organization is facing a tough balancing act similar to that of the Bank of England, as policymakers are at least temporarily trading off inflation and currency protection mandates with a heavier focus on avoiding job losses and economic downturns.

190K Undervalued for Claims

The 190K threshold for initial unemployment claims has failed to be exceeded only one time in the past six years and in just 33 occurrences in the 3,082 observations that have transpired since 1967. In percentage terms, this means that a number of 190k or lower has happened in approximately 1% of the cases. IBKR ForecastTrader contracts with thresholds of 180k and 190k were priced at $0.90 and $0.84 during the morning of Wednesday, Feb. 4. The indicator, furthermore, hasn’t arrived ahead of 270k going back to October 2021, roughly four and a half years ago, and the “No” for this threshold is priced at $0.98. As far as what Wall Street expects, the 35 forecasters in the weekly Reuters poll carry a median of 212k, against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of 205k and 220k.

Forecast Traders Expect a Stronger than Average WEI

On Wednesday, participants priced in a 63% chance that the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) would be 2.4% on Thursday, a number that has been exceeded in the past two out of three readings and in the last three out of three out of five prints. Meanwhile, the averages over 8, 16 and 24 week periods are at 2.29%, 2.25% and 2.28%, meaning that forecast traders see a continued acceleration in activity ahead.

IBKR ForecastTrader contract asking if the Weekly Economic Index will exceed 2.4 for the week of January 31 2026

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 4, 2026. Time until markets close is also as of Feb. 4, 2026. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight “Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.

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