The market is being setup

*NVIDIA is set to report its quarterly results after the close.

*Rebound interest is percolating after four straight losing sessions for the S&P 500.

*The FOMC Minutes for the October meeting will be released today.

There is some calm in the equity futures trade this morning, although we won’t go so far as to say that everything is calm—not with the release of the FOMC Minutes for the October 28-29 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET and NVIDIA (NVDA) slated to report its quarterly results after the close.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 67 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

It’s not a lot, but it’s something for the bulls after four straight losing sessions for the S&P 500, a lot of washouts for momentum stocks, technical failures at 50-day moving averages, and a good deal of consternation about the prospect of another rate cut at the December FOMC meeting.

How the market starts, though, isn’t as important as how it finishes… tomorrow.

On Thursday, market participants will have a better understanding of what Fed officials were thinking at the October FOMC meeting, a better understanding of NVIDIA’s view of the AI growth trajectory, and a better understanding of what the employment situation looked like in September.

Today is a setup. That’s not to say any rebound action is a “trap,” only that it will set up the market with a baseline from which to trade on Thursday.

The early view is looking good despite some weakness in Target (TGT) after its earnings report. NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 1.8% in pre-market trading, after declining nearly 9.0% over the last six sessions; Lowe’s (LOW) and TJX Cos. (TJX) are up 5.9% and 3.2%, respectively, in the wake of their earnings results and guidance; and the trade deficit narrowed sharply in August.

The trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.0 billion) versus an upwardly revised $78.2 billion (from $78.3 billion) in July. That was the result of exports being $0.2 billion more than July exports and imports being $18.4 billion less than July imports.

The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably into the Q3 GDP report, given the positive contribution from the net export component. Of course, this report isn’t as pertinent now, seeing that we are in the latter half of November, or well into Q4, and the updated trade data is a few months behind schedule due to the government shutdown.

Alas, there is nothing we can do about that, except to let government agencies get running again with the collection and compilation of data that will serve as the guide for policy and investing decisions.

That will take some time, but it is nearly time now to see what kind of guide the Fed, NVIDIA, and employment data will be for a market that has been more anxious of late than calm.

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Originally Posted November 19, 2025 – The market is being setup

(Editor’s note: The original comment incorrectly identified the July trade deficit as being $60.2 billion. That was the original June deficit. The comment has been corrected to incorporate the correct amount for the July trade deficit.)