On Wednesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market placed a 98% chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) would hike its 2% interest rate to 2.25% on the following day. The monetary policy institution is dealing with well-above target inflation of 3.2% and is seeking to quell overall cost pressures driven mainly by the energy shock from the Middle East war. The continent is especially vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices, since it’s a major importer of the commodity. Japan, meanwhile, is expected to follow suit with an increase of its own next week.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Claims Expected Around 220k
Also on Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market pointed to initial unemployment claims to be released the following day to come in at around 220k. Such a result would remain in the safe zone from a labor perspective, however, there was a 13% probability of a number coming in ahead of 230k, which could be worrisome depending on where exactly it arrives. Additionally, the “Yes” at 210k was priced at $0.83. Similarly, the 33 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey stood at a median of 219k, against the backdrop of a wide range of possible outcomes spanning from 210k to 234k.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Can The WEI Achieve Another 3-Handle
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has carried a 3-handle for three consecutive weeks, even coming in at a fresh year-to-date high of 3.2% last Thursday. The reacceleration is on and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Wednesday saw a 34% chance of a new peak above 3.2%, as they considered the possibility of a figure north of 3.4%, but at a more tempered 8% probability. Below, meanwhile, the “Yeses” at 3%, 2.8% and 2.6% were prices at $0.61, $0.73 and $0.86, respectively, indicating a strong likelihood of a continuation of this robust expansion.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 10, 2026.
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