Rate hikes: Back on the table?

Are interest rate hikes on the horizon for the Bank of Canada?

Market recap

• Equity investors continue to shrug off the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which lifted Brent to a post-conflict high this week, and has pinned WTI above $100.
• After choking on high oil prices through March, the S&P 500 rallied more than 10% in April.
• Meanwhile, the Nasdaq jumped more than 15%, despite WTI finishing the month little changed from March’s closing level.

Bank of Canada

Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to hold its key interest rate unchanged. However, Governor Tiff Macklem warned that “policy may need to be nimble” in response to elevated uncertainty¹—perhaps alluding to the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and the possible need for rate hikes down the line. The rate decision was in line with markets’ expectations, but it does appear that the likelihood of a rate increase from the BoC has risen since the start of the Iran conflict. Macklem also highlighted that future policy rate changes will be based on economic activity. Our evaluation is that the BoC is unlikely to make any major moves until the upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA) negotiations have played out, as any agreement will have a major impact on Canada’s economic outlook. By the time a deal is reached, a resolution to the U.S.-Iran situation will hopefully also have been reached, allowing oil prices to normalize. If rate hikes do come to fruition, they would represent another headwind for the Canadian economy, with both the housing market and consumer sentiment likely to be affected; any increase to the cost of servicing debt would be a negative for the country’s outlook. That said, the Canadian economy is benefitting from higher energy prices, thought it is unclear how long those prices will last. And if USMCA negotiations play out in line with—or better than—markets’ expectations, then Canadian markets could be poised for a rebound.

Bottom line: Canada’s outlook will depend heavily on how various uncertainties play out. While rate hikes from the BoC are a possibility, other factors—like the USMCA negotiations and the Iran conflict—may be even more important.

The Fed

After months of inertia, things are suddenly moving fast at the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). The U.S. Department of Justice’s decision to drop its criminal investigation of Fed Chair Jerome Powell cleared the path for Powell’s successor, Kevin Warsh, to be confirmed by Congress. That process is now playing out, with Warsh set to be approved before the end of Powell’s term on May 15.² Interestingly, Powell also announced last week that he intends to stay on as a Fed governor for an unspecified period of time until the Trump administration’s legal challenges against the Fed have been resolved. Powell also highlighted that he has no issue with Warsh’s ascendancy to the Fed’s leadership position, and that he does not intend to be a “high-profile dissident.”³ This, in our view, is a positive signal for markets. While many have speculated that the Fed will lean more dovish under Warsh, it is important to consider that Warsh will be taking the seat of former Fed member Stephen Miran, a Trump appointee who was considered to be the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) most dovish (meaning pro-rate cute) voice. While a committee under Warsh’s purview is likely to tilt more towards easing, the overall balance between hawks and doves on the committee is remaining unchanged. Additionally, after last week’s rate decision, three regional Fed presidents dissented over what they described as an “easing bias” in the language of the policy statement accompanying the decision—a signal that the Fed’s hawkish wing is still willing to assert itself, and that it may view a rate hike as the next logical step rather than a cut. These dynamics, along with the uptick in inflation caused by higher oil prices, could mean that rate cuts are pushed out further, and that hikes could be on the table if inflation continues to worsen. That said, we still view rate cuts as the most likely scenario if and when the data supports them, which could come when the Iran conflict is resolved and oil prices moderate.

Bottom line: A Fed under Kevin Warsh will likely lean more dovish, but we do not expect the balance between hawks and doves on the FOMC to shift significantly in the near term.

Earnings

Q1 corporate earnings announcements are continuing to roll out, and results on both side of the Canada-U.S. border have been largely encouraging. In particular, we have not yet seen signs that higher oil prices are having a major impact on companies’ profits. A number of firms in both countries have noted that higher oil prices could affect not only consumers’ pocketbooks, but also their own input costs. However, this has not been a major theme this earnings season—rather, strong company fundamentals have been the big story. For Canadian companies, expectations were not particularly high for this cycle, which made earnings beats more achievable. Canadian banks have been on a good run, and overall, there were few major surprises. In the U.S., earnings have been very strong, though stock price movements have been mixed—some companies have gotten a nice bump, others less so. Capital expenditures (CapEx) have been a sticking point for markets. Meta’s expansion plans concerned some investors in light of the company’s shrinking cash flow, while Google and Amazon’s plans were received more favourably. On the Consumer side, Visa posted an earnings beat, which indicates that consumer spending is holding up relatively well.

For more on corporate earnings, as well expectations for the Canadian economy, check out my recent appearance on BNN Bloomberg’s The Street .

Bottom line: While higher oil prices remain a significant source of uncertainty, they have not yet had a major impact on companies’ profits.

Positioning

For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled From crisis to calibration: earnings anchor the next move

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Originally Posted May 4, 2026 – Rate hikes: Back on the table?

Source

¹“Bank of Canada holds key interest rate at 2.25%, warning future decisions are clouded by uncertainty,” Thomson Reuters/CBC News, April 29, 2026. 

²David Lawder, “Fed chief nominee Warsh clears key hurdle toward Senate confirmation vote,” Reuters, April 29, 2026. 

³Michael S. Derby, “Powell to remain at Fed amid legal ‘battering’ by Trump administration,” Reuters, April 29, 2026.