Briefing.com Summary:
*Conviction is lacking in front of key events later in the week.
*OpenAI’s Sam Altman thinks investors as a whole are overexcited by AI.
*Market participants will be waiting anxiously all week to see whether or not Fed Chair Powell teases the likelihood of a rate cut in September.
The tone of the equity futures market has the look and feel of a Monday. There is some grogginess in the action due to a lack of catalytic news, the impending earnings reports later in the week from major retailers, and the specter of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 29 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down two points and are trading in line with fair value.
While there haven’t been any true, market-moving headlines, there are headlines of interest.
The discussion between President Trump and President Putin in Alaska on Friday about a possible ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine War did not end with an actual agreement. It wouldn’t by default anyway since Ukraine President Zelensky wasn’t in attendance.
There are reports of Russia being on board with a possible Article 5-like NATO security guarantee for Ukraine that would include the U.S., yet there are also reports that Ukraine won’t cede its Russian-occupied territory as a condition for any ceasefire or peace agreement.
President Zelensky and other European leaders are headed to the White House today for talks with President Trump.
Another news item of interest is OpenAI’s Sam Altman positing that investors as a whole are overexcited by AI. That view, according to CNBC, was shared with The Verge during a Friday interview. Notwithstanding Mr. Altman’s opinion, there hasn’t been any hasty move to pull back from the AI leadership stocks and their related minions.
In general, there simply isn’t much conviction this morning on the part of buyers or sellers. That is true for bonds as well as stocks.
The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.75%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.29%. Traders will be anxiously awaiting Mr. Powell’s speech on Friday to see if he tries to tamp down September rate cut expectations in light of last week’s inflation data that didn’t move things closer to the Fed’s 2.0% target or if he accedes to the market’s view that a rate cut is in order regardless.
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Originally Posted August 18, 2025 – Market hanging out in the waiting room
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