The big macro news event on the calendar this week is the January employment report due Friday, which will help the Federal Reserve assess the economic outlook after its widely-expected decision to hold rates steady on January 29. Forecasters expect bad weather during January depressed payrolls and other economic activity during the month. Of course, the January data will not capture effects from the new administration’s efforts to remake the economy with tools including import tariffs, deportations, a freeze on trillions in government spending, government layoffs, deregulation, and promotion of domestic oil production. That means the Fed is obliged to guess at how these effects will play out, or to wait a bit and see.
This week will see the return of Fed officials to public speaking as the two-week blackout period has ended. Markets are watching for insight on how the Fed views the impact of Trump’s policies. For starters, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is expected to discuss “The Economy 2025: the Impacts of Tariffs, Tax Cuts and Trump” on Tuesday morning. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is scheduled to speak on the economy Wednesday afternoon.
Notable economic reports in the week ahead include the Institute for Supply Management’s January surveys of purchasing managers with the manufacturing report due on Monday and its services counterpart on Wednesday. Services is expected to show sustained expansion while the picture on the manufacturing side remains troubled. Observers are watching for signs of the recovery in manufacturing the ISM has been anticipating in the new year. On Tuesday, the JOLTS report is due, which is closely watched for signs of easing in labor market tightness.
The sleeper item to watch will be the Treasury refunding auction announcement due on Wednesday morning and how the bond market responds. The market has been showing signs of stress absorbing huge new Treasury supply given an already problematic US fiscal position. Rising uncertainty and turmoil in financial markets adds to the challenge of coping with new supply.
—
Originally Posted January 31, 2025 – High points for US economic data scheduled for February 3 week
Disclosure: Econoday Inc.
Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.
© 1998-2022 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Third Party
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Econoday Inc. and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Econoday Inc. and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Bonds
As with all investments, your capital is at risk.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account