Forecasters Expected a Downward Revision in Consumer Sentiment: March 26, 2026

Friday’s final reading of the University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index was expected to arrive beneath the preliminary March print of 55.5, according to the IBKR predictive market on Thursday. There was indeed a greater likelihood of a downward revision rather than an upward adjustment, as the “No” at 54 was priced at 25% while the “Yes” at 56 was going for 10%. The lower bias was likely due to investors perceiving that pain at the pump and geopolitical uncertainty probably worsened household confidence as the month progressed. Furthermore, this survey carries an elevated negative correlation with gasoline prices, and fuel costs have been surging in light of the Iran war, serving to strain the pocketbooks and moods of shoppers around the world.

Forecast contract - Will the US consumer Sentiment Index exceed 54 in March 2026?

Forecast trades - US Consumer Sentiment.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 26, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of March 26, 2026.

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