Chart Advisor: Your Weekly Roadmap with Jay Woods, CMT

By Jay Woods, CMT

1/ Monday, Monday

2/ CPI and PPI

3/ 13F Filings

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1/

Monday, Monday

The market has been spinning its wheels for two weeks in a sea of volatility.

We have experienced back-to-back Monday sell-offs that sent early week shockwaves throughout the system. The declines were short-lived and led to recovery rallies by each Thursday afternoon.

Fridays have failed us. Early morning rallies brought hope that we could finish the week strong, but that morning optimism faded and led to back-to-back declines as traders didn’t want to be long this market into a weekend.

So what can investors expect this Monday morning when they wake up? That is a great question.

This writer is hoping to be smiling ear-to-ear from a Philadelphia Eagle victory. (I am writing and sending this before the big game… but I digress)

Monday has been chock full of surprises. The last two weekends have brought us DeepSeek and tariffs. All we can be prepared for is market levels to watch in light of any price swing. So let’s look at the levels in the S&P 500.

We have been trading tighter and tighter between the 50-day moving average and the 6100 level. Each trip to 6100 is met with major resistance and a quick drawdown. It feels as if something is going to give.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The bulls are looking for that next catalyst to make new highs. They haven’t been getting it from the megacap names this quarter, so who will lead? A small rebound in those beaten down names could do the trick.

If the trends continue lower than watch to see if buyers step in on a dip to 5900. That coincides with near term support and the 100-day moving average (not shown). It has been a good level in the uptrend going back months.

For now, the dip buyers have been rewarded. Can it continue with these volatile headlines? Maybe we will see it again this Monday.

2/

CPI and PPI

The next round of inflationary data for the Fed and the market to digest will be released midweek. The Consumer Price Index leads things off on Wednesday and is expected to remain at the same 2.9% rate year-over-year. The PPI follows on Thursday and rarely has the impact or causes the market to move like its predecessor.

Past performance is not indicative of future results

The CPI has trended slightly higher since the Fed started to cut rates. Let’s see if that trend stabilizes now seeing the Fed did not act at its recent meeting.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials continue to echo a cautious approach. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari made news last week when he noted that the policy rate could be “modestly” lower by the end of 2025, contingent on continued cooling inflation and a strong labor market.

Last week, unemployment surprised many and ticked lower, if CPI can do the same then expect rate cut talk to percolate as this may be the start of “modestly” lower numbers.

3/

13F Filings 

This Friday we get the first peek at what some of the biggest names in the financial world have been up to. Every quarter the largest investors in the world disclose changes to their equity holdings. These filings are always of interest to the street as well as individual investors as it tells you what the “smart money” is doing.

Well known fund managers like Warren Buffet, Steve Cohen, Bill Ackman, Michael Burry and David Tepper to name a few share what their funds have been doing over the past quarter.

One problem – it is a lagging indicator.

These reports are 45 days old when published. By time they report its old news and they are halfway through the latest quarter making new moves.

However there are important takeaways to note from these filings from the so-called “smart money”.

• New Additions or Total Exits – what are the new big ideas and what stocks have fallen out of favor?
• Examine Top Holdings – is there any noticeable sector rotation?
• Overall Positioning – were they a net buyer of equities at these levels or sellers
• Diamond in the Rough – what are those little known stocks that someone has taken a shot on.

Last Friday, Bill Ackman announced he bought a sizable stake in UBER over the last month and shares surged higher by 6.6%. Will this be in this most recent 13F? Thats’s unlikely since the report is 45 days old and he may not have had that large of a position until recently.

However the point stands, when an influential leader in the financial world announces they have a position in a stock – whether it’s on X or in a proper filing – the minions follow.

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Originally posted 10th February 2025