1/ Strong Breadth & Equal Weight
2/ Discretionary vs. Staples
3/ Growth vs. Value
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1/
Strong Breadth & Equal Weight
Moving average breadth is improving and recovering off the lows to start the year. 59% of S&P 500 companies are now trading above the 200-day average. This breadth indicator strongly correlates to the ratio of S&P 500 Equal-weight vs. S&P 500 Market-cap Weight.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
If breadth is improving and more stocks are in healthy uptrends, one could assume equal-weight is outperforming market-cap weight. Historically, some of the strongest spurts of equal-weight outperformance followed an expansion of moving average breadth. Something to keep an eye on in 2025!
2/
Discretionary vs. Staples
One of my favorite gauges of investor risk appetite is the price ratio of Consumer Discretionary to Consumer Staples stocks. Typically, new highs are meant to signal increased risk appetite among investors i.e. investors are bidding up cyclical stocks and selling defensive stocks. However, the ratio is trading +3 standard deviations above the 3yr average. In recent years, this level has signaled muted forward 12-month price returns.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
3/
Growth vs. Value
The definitions of growth and value equity haven’t changed, but the constituents that make up various growth and value indices certainly have. The below chart displays two price ratios. The first compares S&P 500 Growth Index to the S&P 500 Value index (red line). The second compares the S&P 500 Technology sector to the S&P 500 Financials sector (blue line). Historically, the ratios held a very strong positive correlation. For obvious reasons, Financials tend to be more represented in the Value Index and Technology more so in the Growth Index.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
The story here is in the decoupling of the ratios. The rolling 3-year correlation reached negative territory in 2024. The reason is in part due to the growth of the Technology sector. Just 5-years ago in February 2020, the Technology sector represented 8.6% of the S&P 500 Value Index. Today, Technology is the largest weighted sector at 24%, surpassing even Financials (#2 weighted sector, 15.6%). The top 3 weighted companies in this Value index are Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. Yes, you read that correctly. My point being, is that not every Large-cap Value Index is built the same. Know what you own and why you own it!
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Originally posted 18th February 2025
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