UMich Sentiment Revision Was Expected To Be Modest: May 21, 2026

The Friday revision to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index was expected to feature a modest upgrade from the 48.2 record low, as the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Thursday priced the 48 “Yes” at $0.71. A sharp adjustment north to 50 or 52 was viewed as being improbable, however, considering that the historical absolute average and median changes from the preliminary to the final are 1 and 0.7, signaling an elevated likelihood of a range between 47.2 and 49.2. The “Nos” at those upper thresholds (50, 52) appeared relatively attractive and undervalued in my opinion at $0.70 and $0.89 on Thursday. Under at 46 meanwhile, there was an 87% chance of the result not falling to that level.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 21, 2026. 

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