A Look at Five Econ Thursday Expirations: May 20, 2026

On Wednesday, the following day’s US initial unemployment claims were expected to signal ongoing stability in labor conditions, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market pointing to a number near 211k. Indeed, the anticipated figure would be unchanged from the prior report and come in around the four-week moving average of 204k. Also on Wednesday, the associated “Yes” contracts at 200k, 210k and 220k were priced at $0.90, $0.53 and $0.15, delivering $1.00 back on results north of those specified thresholds. Furthermore, the monthly Reuters poll comprised of 34 forecasters surveyed stood at a median of 210k on Wednesday against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of 200k and 215k.

Construction Activity to Slow

Housing starts were expected to have slowed down from March’s 1.502 million seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) to around 1.43 million, as heavier mortgage rates, strong values and worsening affordability dynamics weighed on construction activity in April. On Wednesday, the “Yeses” at 1.3 million, 1.4 million and 1.5 million were going for $0.90, $0.66 and $0.16, while the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 46 forecasters carried a median of 1.41 million amidst minimum and maximum projections of 1.337 million and 1.554 million.

Permits Expected to Rise Modestly Though

Despite housing starts expected to reflect a decline in the Thursday morning report, investors on Wednesday anticipated that building permits would rise modestly. The difference between the two indicators is that the former is defined by actual groundbreaking, while the latter represents applications to begin construction at some point in the future. The monthly Reuters poll of 37 forecasters carried a median estimate of 1.39 million SAAU as of Wednesday amidst a wide range of possible outcomes spanning from 1.35 million to 1.45 million. In the Interactive Brokers prediction market, the “Yeses” at 1.3 million and 1.4 million SAAU were priced at $0.74 and $0.36 as of Wednesday

Activity To Remain Buoyant

Economic activity was expected to have remained buoyant in the past few days as the most likely result in Thursday index from the Dallas Fed is 2.58%, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market on the eve of the release. Meanwhile, the last 10 prints only featured a number below 2.61% once, and in consideration of the recent trends and cyclical momentum, I the “Yes” at 2.6% on Wednesday at just $0.48 was attractive, in my opinion. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 2.4% and 2.8% were priced at $0.67 and $0.28.

Japan CPI Expected to Rise 1.6% Y/Y Also on Wednesday, Japan’s Consumer Price Index was expected to have risen 1.6% year over year to the 113.3 level. Against this backdrop, pricing in the Interactive Brokers prediction market was at $0.80, $0.23 and $0.15 across the “Yeses” corresponding with the 112.8, 113.6 and 114.4 thresholds. Considering that was highly unlikely to get a number below 113.1 or above 113.5, due to the indicator’s subdued relative deviation, positioning with “Yes” and “No” contracts below and above those figures offered attractive risk-reward dynamics, in my opinion.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 20, 2026. 

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