Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated a hawkish view on inflation since being appointed to the helm of the central bank, but on Monday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants don’t think he would hike this week in an effort to quell price pressures. Odds of a pause were additionally helped in the past few days by lower oil prices stemming from US and Iran pausing hostilities for three consecutive nights as they try talks. Meanwhile, the disinflation trend is still intact even as fuel charges have rebounded from the middle of the month. Indeed, May’s Consumer Price Index peak of 4.2% was followed by June’s 3.5%, and my estimate of July is at 3.3%, pointing to a gauge that will once again carry a 2-handle by year-end if crude can remain below $70 per barrel, where it was in the beginning of July. Heading into Wednesday’s decision, a hold is costing $0.80, while a 25-basis point increase is going for $0.19.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 27, 2026.
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