Dow Reaches Fresh Records as Cyclical Sectors Cheer an Imminent Reopening: Nov. 12, 2025

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a fresh record high this morning amidst mixed trading as the cyclically oriented benchmark stands to benefit disproportionately from an imminent reopening in Washington. Indeed, the House of Representatives is expected to end the longest shutdown in history tonight, with the slim GOP majority in the lower chamber likely to vote yes in light of President Trump and leaders of the conservative Freedom Caucus within the Republican Party backing the proposal. But safe-haven assets, including Treasuries, gold and silver, appear worried about the ramifications of the federal closure, with all three advancing strongly on the back of slowdown fears that were amplified by yesterday’s reports signaling a payroll contraction by ADP and declining small business optimism from the NFIB. Emblematic of deceleration worries is a yield curve that is plunging in bull-flattening fashion, led south by duration, as fixed-income watchers lock in long-end rates that would produce superior capital returns relative to shorter tenures if unemployment climbs. Top of mind, though, is the degree that next week’s BLS and Census data confirm or contradict receding momentum as signaled by private sector counterparts. Equities are taking notice of the risks, too, with the Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500 reversing from notable gains to modest losses as analysts fine tune earnings estimates against the backdrop of heavy fog blocking a stable reading of growth prospects. Commodities ex energy are rallying, crude oil and natural gas are dropping, however, on oversupplied conditions bolstered by lofty production volumes domestically and from OPEC+. Volatility protection instruments are catching bids as well, the dollar is flat on Wall Street.

Upcoming Government Data Is Pivotal

Incoming public sector data is pivotal for bulls and bears alike that have been positioning across markets in the absence of government figures. Trading decisions have been dominated by corporate earnings results, developments on Capitol Hill and economic numbers from private sources outside of Washington. Next week will be critical because if the long-awaited statistics don’t justify Wall Street’s recent trajectory, then sharp moves could occur in either direction. Indeed, if BLS and Census publications signal a more pronounced slowdown than previously believed, then Treasuries are positioned for a strong rally while stocks are likely to buckle during a favorable seasonal window. But a stronger backdrop than formerly thought would drive losses for fixed-income and drop the probabilities of rate cuts throughout the next two months while serving as a neutral event for stocks, as rosier profitability prospects offset the lower chances of significant monetary policy accommodation. Finally, it’s precisely the augmented period where participants made investments with incomplete information that could spark meaningful shifts for asset prices depending on the findings. Still, the bias into year-end is toward appreciating equities, loftier costs of capital and a climbing greenback, as the reacceleration trade is strengthened by an imminent reopening as well as taxation legislation in 2025 that alongside milder regulations is set to increasingly benefit the landscape in 2026.

International Roundup

Canada Building Approvals Reverse from October’s Drop

The value of building permits issued in Canda during September advanced 4.5% month over month (m/m), surpassing the economist consensus estimate of 0.8% and reversing from the 4% contraction in August. Relative to the year-ago period, however, the metric is down 11.2%. For the m/m print, the residential component accounted for the positive number, posting a 4.8% gain, but it was 8% lower year over year (y/y). Industrial and commercial permit values were also positive m/m, ascending 14.1% and 9.6%, but institutional activity fell 10.1%. 

Australia Real Estate Loans Grow

The volume and value of new loan commitments for Australia dwellings increased 6.4% and 9.6% during the third quarter. The value of loans promises for owner-occupied residences, furthermore, was 4.7% higher, surpassing the economist consensus estimate of 2.5% and accelerating from the 2.2% in the March to June period. Debt issuance for real estate investors was up 17.6%, substantially outpacing the consensus estimate for a 4% gain and much stronger than 2.6% in the second quarter. Vacancies and interest rates have been falling in Australia, which has supported demand for real estate financing.

Sentiment Hits Multi-Year High Among Japanese Manufacturers

A weak yen has helped push manufacturing sentiment to a four-year high in Japan, according to the Reuters Tankan poll. The gauge climbed from 8 in October to 17 for this month with auto manufacturers and electronic providers reporting solid orders. The subindex for those two sectors climbed from 9 and 5 to 27 and 25. Executives across sectors expressed concerns about trade uncertainty as the US is adding import taxes to encourage domestic production. Nevertheless, Japanese firms reported strong orders from foreign countries with recent yen depreciation creating a strong tailwind.

And Machine Orders Continue to Grow

Japan machine tool order growth accelerated in October, marking the fourth-consecutive month of increases, according to the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association. Requests for machines and other tools were 16.8% above the year-ago period’s results, easily surpassing the economist consensus estimate of 9.9% and September 8.1% y/y pace. The recent increase is the largest since June 2022, when orders climbed 17.1%.

South Korea Unemployment Rate Climbs Modestly

South Korea’s unemployment rate crept up from 2.5% in September to 2.6% last month. The country’s participation rate, furthermore, slipped from 64.8 in September to 64.5%.