Trading volumes at ForecastEx have been through the roof lately, with total pairings reaching 4.6 million on Dec. 22 and 15.7 million as of early Tuesday. Prediction market enthusiasts continued engaging heavily with the same themes of the past few weeks, as daily high temperatures across US cities maintain a commanding share of transactions.
“Yes” To Dallas FED WEI Above 2%
The past 27 weeks have featured a reading below 2% from the US Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) only once, and there’s little reason to believe the Wednesday print won’t exceed that level. ForecastEx offered contracts with thresholds ranging from above 1.2 to above 3.
US Economy Has Momentum
The US economy has momentum as seen in Tuesday’s ferocious 4.3% gross domestic product (GDP) print for the third quarter and there’s a very low chance of an imminent recession in my view even as fourth quarter performance will be hampered by the longest government shutdown in history. A technical recession by the end of Q1 2026 requires negative prints for both Q4 and Q1, but those odds are next to zero in consideration of a landscape that is benefiting from fiscal and monetary stimulus, lighter taxation, capex depreciation incentives, milder regulations, subdued energy costs and buoyant capital markets. On this topic, ForecastEx has contracts asking if a recession will occur at the end of 1Q 2026.
Separately, the Q3 GDP print will be finalized in a month and a heavy revision down to 2.6% is almost impossible, in my view. ForecastEx contracts are available with a variety of different thresholds for this upcoming print.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 23, 2025. Contract expiration dates are also as of Dec. 23, 2025, NY time. To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’
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