MORNING EXPRESS: E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 6146.25, up 69.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22,412.75, up 339.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed within 2% of a record high. That said, the QQQ ETF is on the one-inch line of its record, set on February 19th. Better-than-expected PMIs on Monday, semiconductor tailwinds, and the Iran-Israel ceasefire have all been a tailwind from Monday’s intraday low. Yesterday’s tape was certainly interesting, and we have often seen some give-back intraday after such a strong overnight. Although this may have been the case on Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish prepared speech for his Congressional Testimony, he hinted at flexibility during his questioning. The CME’s FedWatch Tool only shows a 20.7% probability of a 25bps cut at the July meeting, up from 12.5% one week ago when the Chair was direct and spoke of being cautious and patient in the timing of a policy adjustment at his FOMC press conference. He testifies before Congress again today, beginning at 9:00 am CT.
Build Permits are due at 7:30 am CT, New Home Sales at 9:00 am CT, and a 5-year Note auction at noon CT.
ENERGY UPDATE:
WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)
Yesterday’s Settlement: 64.37, -4.14 [-6.04%]
Crude futures fell sharply once again yesterday as the conflict between Iran and Israel, in the opinion of markets, reached its conclusion. President Trump declared a ceasefire and threatened Israel if it didn’t comply, but an official truce between Iran and Israel has not been signed.
President Trump commented yesterday that China was “free to buy Iranian oil,” which aided in the sell-off. Markets took this as a sign that tighter sanctions on Iran’s crude oil exports would not be imposed, alongside general confusion, as Iranian oil has been sanctioned for years.
Shortly after crude’s settlement, the NYT and CNN reported that the majority of Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities had not been destroyed in US strikes. This caused a slight bump to crude futures through the latter hours of the US session.
President Trump and his team denied these reports, insisting Iran’s nuclear program is “completely destroyed”.
Today, +0.43 [+0.67%] to 64.80
The macro environment is trading mixed, with the Dollar stronger, equities higher / flat, and treasuries nearly unchanged. The commodity complex is generally weaker on the day.
The stories surrounding Iran’s nuclear program, which may not have been “completely destroyed,” are buoying CL prices alongside another bullish API report.
Data Releases:
Last night’s API release was as follows [thousand bbls]:
Crude: -4,280
Gasoline: +764
Distillates: -1,030
Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:
Crude: -1,100 estimate
Gasoline: +500 estimate
Distillates: +1,000 estimate
Refinery Utilization: +0.70% estimate
With the API trending bullish, traders will be on the lookout for another bullish EIA report. Last week’s EIA figures showed a sharp drawdown in Crude inventories.
—
Originally Posted June 25, 2025
Disclosure: Blue Line Futures
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained within is not to be construed as a recommendation of any investment product or service.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Third Party
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Futures Trading
Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at the Warnings and Disclosures section of your local Interactive Brokers website.
Disclosure: ETFs
Any discussion or mention of an ETF is not to be construed as recommendation, promotion or solicitation. All investors should review and consider associated investment risks, charges and expenses of the investment company or fund prior to investing. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account