The contemporary addition of daily contracts to the ForecastEx platform asking whether the highest temperatures in certain major US cities will exceed particular Fahrenheit levels has gained huge popularity in recent days. Emblematic of this traction are north of 160k open contracts that addressed Nov. 21 temperatures and have since expired. The latest excitement helped push volumes on the predictive platform above 1 million for the third consecutive day on Friday. The contracts cover temperatures for Austin, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Francisco and Seattle. But it hasn’t been just climate topics that ForecastTraders have been engaging heavily with lately, as there’s been significant interest tied to the Fed’s December rate decision, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the performances of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Williams Sides with the Doves
NY Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the FOMC, sided with the doves Friday morning by assuming the organization will take an increasingly accommodative stance. His comments alluded to labor market vulnerabilities currently overwhelming inflation risks. He also opined that the central bank’s posture is currently modestly restrictive, which sent the odds of the “Yes” trade on a rate cut next month from a low of 25% on Thursday to a high of 78% on Friday, a significant swing. The enthusiasm for further easing has tempered at the margins, however, with pricing eventually declining to $0.64 as of press time. Participant interest has been buoyant against the backdrop of elevated volatility, with open contracts tied to the last monetary policy decision of the year at approximately 173k.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for image: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 21, 2025.
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