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Chance of Clarity Act Becoming Law Was at 40% On Monday: Sept. 14, 2026

Chance of Clarity Act Becoming Law Was at 40% On Monday: Sept. 14, 2026

Posted September 15, 2026 at 12:39 pm

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

The Senate was scheduled to vote on the Clarity Act Tuesday, Sept. 15 after President Trump accepted some key ethics components over the weekend. The legislation is intended to establish new guidelines and institute fresh legal infrastructure for cryptocurrencies and digital assets, but with just 53 Republicans in the upper chamber, at least seven Democrats were needed as of Monday to cast yays for the bill to avoid a filibuster and clear this significant congressional hurdle. The proposal had stalled for months, because concerns of the traditional banking system losing deposits to increasingly attractive, yet potentially more risky and less sustainable, stablecoin yields created financial stability worries. Additionally, the commander-in-chief’s personal business dealings in the industry led certain lawmakers to oppose the political party and demand tighter standards related to elected officials benefiting from the modern sector. Finally, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets on Monday assigned 40% odds of the measure becoming law in 2026.

Prediction Market Chart -US Legislative Action

Spain CPI Expected at 104.63

Also on Monday, the following day’s revision to Spain’s Consumer Price Index was expected be 104.63, reflecting 0.7% month-over-month and 4.3% year-over-year increases. The historical tendency for this indicator to arrive near its preliminary release had the contracts with 104 and 105 thresholds generally out of reach in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, with those “Yeses” going for $0.97 and $0.03.

Prediction Market Chart - Consumer price index of spain

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 14, 2026. 

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