The bank says Meta’s AI assistant is turning into a “front door to the internet,” with 6.6 million downloads and 1.8 million daily users so far.
What’s going on here?
Citigroup thinks Meta’s new AI assistant, Muse, is catching on fast and could become a more than $27 billion-a-year business by 2030.
What does this mean?
Muse is Meta’s bid to make an AI assistant a default starting point for everyday online tasks, from finding info to comparing products and completing purchases. Citi says early adoption looks strong for a new app, citing 6.6 million cumulative downloads and 1.8 million daily active users so far. The bank expects most of Muse’s future revenue to come from commerce: it models about $23 billion tied to transactions and roughly $4.5 billion from subscriptions by 2030, meaning Meta would increasingly earn fees for helping users buy things, not just for showing ads. That puts Muse in a crowded race with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude, all of which are adding “agent” features that try to do tasks on a user’s behalf.
Why should I care?
For markets: Citi’s $23 billion transaction forecast makes Muse’s fee economics the real test.
A transaction-heavy model gets judged less on downloads and more on “take rate” – the cut a platform keeps from each purchase after payment processing, fraud and chargeback losses, and any revenue share with merchants. So Citi’s $27 billion revenue headline only matters if Muse can turn usage into profitable throughput, not just clicks and queries. If it can, analysts may start valuing Meta less like a pure advertising company and more like a platform that earns a slice of online commerce and subscriptions. That shift would also put a brighter spotlight on margins: how much profit Muse generates per transacting user, not simply how quickly its user count grows.
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Originally Posted October 6, 2026 – Citi Thinks Meta’s Muse Could Become A $27 Billion Business
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