Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 28, 2026

The week in review

• U.S. flash PMIs rose to 58.4
• Initial claims fell to 197k
• Consumer sentiment rose to 48.1

The week ahead

• PCE
• Nonfarm payrolls

Thought of the Week

September’s flash PMIs delivered a strong signal on global growth, with activity accelerating across several major economies. The U.S. composite PMI rose to 58.4, its highest since July 2021, while the eurozone composite climbed to 53.1, the strongest reading since April 2023. Japan also remained firmly in expansionary territory, even as growth cooled slightly, while the UK continued to expand at a more modest pace.

Taken together, the flash readings point to another step up in global activity. Using PMI data dating back to January 2010, our regression model estimates that the Global Composite PMI could rise to roughly 54.6 this month. If realized, that would mark its highest level since November 2021 and extend the momentum already visible through the summer. Particularly notable is that this acceleration has occurred despite elevated energy prices, geopolitical uncertainty and tighter financial conditions.

For markets, stronger growth is arriving at a time when inflation pressures remain elevated and major central banks have shifted toward a more hawkish stance. That combination has challenged expectations for an imminent easing in financial conditions. Treasury yields moved higher following the data, with the 10- and 30-year yields reaching 5.20% and 5.50%, respectively.

For investors, the message is two-sided: global growth remains resilient, supporting the earnings backdrop, but that same resilience gives central banks less urgency to reverse course. With growth holding up and inflation still sticky, higher-for-longer rates may remain a key feature of the investment environment.

Chart of the Week: Source: J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management. Regression analysis and forecast
excludes February 2020 – February 2021, due to global pandemic.
Thought of the week: Source: J.P. Morgan Economic Research, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management. Regression analysis and forecast
excludes February 2020 – February 2021, due to global pandemic.

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Originally Posted September 28, 2026 – Weekly Market Recap

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