The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets “Yes” contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index was at $0.53 on Thursday. The initial US sentiment report, which was released approximately two weeks ago, was at 47.6. Meanwhile, revisions have historically ranged between + 1 and – 1, and a significant downward adjustment of 1.6 was needed for the “Yes” contract to lose. Elsewhere, the “Yeses” corresponding to the 44, 48, 50 and 52 thresholds for the Friday, Sept. 25, release were going for $0.93, $0.27, $0.15 and $0.03 on Thursday. Finally, we’re nearing record lows on this indicator, with May’s figure coming in at the worst ever level of 44.8, as pain at the pump, elevated interest rates, affordability pressures and geopolitical uncertainty have negatively affected US household moods for most of the year.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 24, 2026.
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