Navigating supply surges: How AI is reshaping global investment grade credit

Originally Posted 15 December 2025 – Navigating supply surges: How AI is reshaping global investment grade credit

Surging supply, driven by AI-fuelled capital expenditure from hyperscalers, is reshaping global investment grade credit. Portfolio manager James Briggs and head of investment grade credit Tim Winstone outline the implications for credit spreads, sector weightings, and how to navigate 2026’s evolving market.

Key takeaways:

• AI-driven capital expenditure (CapEx) from hyperscalers is fuelling record investment grade credit issuance, with tech’s share of IG indices projected to rise sharply. This structural shift introduces concentration risk and mirrors past sector dominance cycles, but this time corporate fundamentals are much stronger.
• Heavy supply may pressure spreads temporarily, yet robust demand and reinvestment flows should absorb issuance. Investors face a late-cycle environment where macro factors – geopolitics and fiscal and monetary policy – pose greater risks than credit quality.
• A nimble approach to portfolio rotation amid dispersion and shifting rate cycles is vital for 2026. Resilience matters as yields stay historically attractive, and steeper curves favour fixed-rate allocations further along the maturity spectrum.

Tighter spreads amid record supplyEmpty heading

As we look ahead to 2026, one of the most dominant themes for global investment grade (IG) credit markets is the sheer scale of expected supply. This comes against a backdrop of tighter valuations and concerns about spread widening – but we believe it is key for investors to focus on corporate fundamentals alongside a less challenging inflation environment and more benign rates backdrop for credit.

Record supply expected in 2026Empty heading

2025 has been a blockbuster year for IG issuance. According to Morgan Stanley, US IG supply reached US$1.71 trillion over the year to date, well above the five-year average of US$1.45 trillion. In Europe, the equivalent issuance hit €714 billion versus a five-year average of €557 billion.[1] This surge has been driven in part by hyperscalers – namely Meta, Google’s owner Alphabet, Apple, Oracle and Amazon – raising finance to fund unprecedented capital expenditure (CapEx) linked to AI infrastructure.

Looking forward, hyperscalers’ CapEx estimates for 2026 vary widely, ranging between US$300bn to over US$500bn, across market participants. Figure 1 show some estimates from Wells Fargo. This uncertainty reflects the scale and timing of hyperscaler financing plans and broader corporate CapEx trends. The speed at which hyperscaler investment forecasts have surged epitomises this. According to Goldman Sachs, consensus estimates for 2026 have jumped from US$314billion at the start of 2025 to US$458 billion by Q3, with expectations now at US$518 billion.[2]

Figure 1: Tech issuance expected to grow to US$350bn in 2026

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg, November 2025.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The changing face of the investment grade marketEmpty heading

We expect technology’s footprint in IG credit to expand significantly, driven by this unprecedented AI-related CapEx. The sector has grown from 3% of the index in 2008 to 10% today,[3]and the Big Five hyperscalers alone could represent over 5% of the index by the end of 2026.[4] Based on current issuance expectations, tech could account for up to 17% of the US IG market and up to 8% of the Euro IG market within two years,[5] placing these companies among the top 10 issuers outside the big six banks. This evolution mirrors past cycles like oil and gas dominance in the shale boom of 2015-16, with painful memories of an earnings shock when oil prices collapsed. However, hyperscalers are highly profitable, cash-rich companies, unlike many shale producers that were highly leveraged and vulnerable to price swings.

Can the market absorb this supply?Empty heading

Nevertheless, the perennial question for investors is: can the market digest this wave of issuance without destabilising spreads? Our view is most likely yes – though not without some short-term indigestion. These are high-quality, cash-rich companies with robust margins and resilient cash flows. Deals from hyperscalers offer investors access to AA-rated, non-cyclical issuers at attractive new-issue concessions. Historically, mega-deals – such as Verizon’s $49 billion refinancing or AB InBev’s post-M&A issuance – have provided compelling entry points and we expect similar opportunities to arise in 2026.

Overall, technicals (supply and demand dynamics) remain supportive. Global IG credit generates roughly US$600 billion in annual coupon payments,[6] creating a natural reinvestment bid alongside fresh inflows. While heavy supply may pressure spreads temporarily, we see this as an opportunity to build structural positions in defensive sectors rather than a systemic risk.

Beyond Tech: the broader CapEx waveEmpty heading

It is important to note that elevated CapEx is not confined to technology, as shown in Figure 2. Robust investment across manufacturing and infrastructure has been a key driver of growth and productivity post-COVID. While this has supported margins so far, history suggests that significant capacity additions eventually lead to competition and pricing pressure. For now, fundamentals remain solid, and we characterise the current environment as late cycle rather than end of cycle. Unlike the dot-com era, while tech CapEx growth is now parallel to that period,[7], today’s issuers are large, profitable, and well capitalised. However, investors should remain alert to the longer-term implications: strong margins can encourage over-expansion, competition and eventually impact profits, but this is not a near-term dynamic in our view.

Figure 2: The CapEx cycle extends beyond tech as shown by US private construction spending by sector

Source: Bloomberg, 1 December 1995 to 1 August 2025.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Risks: exogenous shocks and macro variables, not credit fundamentalsEmpty heading

We believe the biggest risk to IG credit in 2026 is not credit quality but macro dynamics. Core developed markets end the year in better shape than many envisioned following the “Liberation Day” volatility. A piecemeal approach to tariffs with numerous carve-outs has moderated the impact on cross-border trade and avoided a steep decline in activity. With inflation forecast to fall below target levels in continental Europe and return towards target in the US and UK as one-time fiscal effects fall out of year-over-year changes, monetary policy may remain supportive for bond markets in the year ahead.

Globally the cycle of interest rate cuts is likely coming to an end, however. Recent pronounced increases in government bond yields in Asia are changing the relative attractiveness of domestic markets. The de-dollarisation event that markets feared in the summer of 2025 has not materialised, but slow repatriation may occur reversing the years-long cycle of liquidity provision to US and other developed markets. Without central banks intervening to suppress volatility, the risks – and opportunities – of macro-led volatility from a less synchronised global growth outlook may be elevated.

While spreads are tight, yields remain attractive, with global IG yielding around 4.4%.[8] This compares favourably to historical norms and offers positive total return potential, particularly as rate-cutting cycles progress in the UK and US. We expect investors to gradually extend duration as confidence in inflation control builds, moving beyond the front-end bias that dominated flows in 2025.

Investor playbook for 2026Empty heading

We believe having the firepower and dynamism to act will be important to navigating investment grade credit in 2026. An active primary market will undoubtedly create opportunities within tech and outside of it – allowing investors to select those idiosyncratic stories that are positioned to succeed. Rather than chasing yield indiscriminately, we believe investor focus should be on quality: strong balance sheets, resilient cash flows, and issuers with the capacity to navigate competitive pressures as the CapEx wave plays out. This is a year to lean into structural themes without becoming overexposed to any single sector.

Technology’s growing weight in IG indices introduces concentration risk, suggesting that investors might consider diversifying portfolios, balancing exposure with defensive sectors and maintaining liquidity to act when volatility creates mispriced opportunities. Being nimble – ready to rotate as dispersion emerges – is critical. We expect investors to take advantage of steeper yield curves to extend duration selectively as inflation in Europe and the US moderates and rate-cutting cycles progress, but they should avoid complacency: inflation and policy shifts remain key swing factors. In short, success will come from combining patience with agility – building positions in high-quality credits while staying alert to the next phase of the cycle.

 Yields may vary and are not guaranteed.

Footnotes

[1] Source: Morgan Stanley, 1 December 2025.
[2] Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 3 November 2025.
[3] Source: Bloomberg, as at 11 December 2025.
[4] Source: Wells Fargo Securities, Bloomberg LP, as at November 2025. Big Five are Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet. The Index is the Bloomberg US Corporate Investment Grade Index.
[5] Source: Janus Henderson Estimates, as at 8 December 2025.
[6] Source: Janus Henderson estimates, as at 12 December 2025.Based on the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Index.
[7] Source: ASR Ltd, WorldScope, LSEG Datastream, 3 November 2025.
[8] Source: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate Total Return Index Hedged USD, as at 11 December 2025. Yields may vary and are not guaranteed.