Thursday Claims with ForecastEx and Kalshi: June 2, 2026

The newest integration with the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market includes contracts settled through Kalshi and the CME Group in addition to ForecastEx. This Thursday’s initial unemployment claims print provides an example of an indicator listed by two different exchanges with ForecastEx preceding each threshold with “above,” while Kalshi uses “at least” before the statistic. The simple difference amongst the trade opportunities is that the former must arrive ahead of the number chosen to be profitable while the latter can come in equal to the figure to pay out $1.00. Additionally, the spreads across the venues can vary significantly, as you can see below, offering potential arbitrage possibilities for participants. Overall, though, this June 4 release is expected to land between 210k and 220k, which is in the same ballpark as the 213k median estimate in the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters who have minimum and maximum projections of 205k and 225k.

Forecast contract prices - Unemployment claims.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 2, 2026.

Learn more about ForecastEx here

Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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