Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium Friday morning almost doubled the odds of a September hike. After delivering his hawkish presentation in which he spoke about his unwavering commitment to quelling inflationary pressures in light of strong economic activity and full employment warranting a single, rather than dual, mandate focus, the probability of an increase next month jumped from 31% to 52%, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. The repricing followed a July press conference in which the chief seemed to turn towards an increasingly patient approach following June’s message of discipline on the cost front. Friday’s update featured a sense of urgency from the central bank leader, and the likelihood of a second 25-basis point lift occurring prior to year-end climbed up to 29% from 21%, when examining the December “Yes” contract at the 3.875% threshold, indicating more tightening potentially in the pipeline.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 28, 2026.
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