Fed’s Waller Follows Williams in Supporting December Cut: Nov. 24, 2025

Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterating his endorsement of a December cut this morning is extending Friday’s stock market recovery that was sparked by his New York colleague, John Williams. But monetary easing enthusiasm may be reaching its limit, as shorter-dated Treasuries are actually experiencing modest losses, effectively trading in the opposite direction of what would normally be expected from dovish comments from a pair of voting members. The bifurcated dynamic is emblematic of fixed-income watchers penciling in a quarter-point reduction at the final rate decision of 2025 while remaining unsure about the road ahead. Indeed, a 79% chance of a lighter benchmark in 16 days would place the bottom of its allowed range at 3.5%, precisely the level of support on the 2-year yield, indicating resistance for much more accommodation in the next few years as policy approaches neutral. Economic data out tomorrow and Wednesday will likely influence more meaningful shifts throughout the Treasury curve. Turning to equities, it’s not just prospects of looser financial conditions helping, artificial intelligence fervor is also being bolstered by excitement over Alphabet’s upgraded AI model and participation is broad with just staples and energy in the red across the 11 major sectors. The commodity complex features crude oil, silver and gold appreciating while natural gas, lumber and copper sink.

Charts Standing in the Way of Bulls

Markets are starting off this holiday-shortened week on a good foot thanks to Waller and Williams raising the chances of a December cut after such an action appeared increasingly unlikely just a few days ago. Meanwhile, the next two days will serve heavy plates of economic data prior to Thanksgiving, including some delayed results from September, numbers from October and this month as well as high-frequency, weekly labor statistics. Favorable seasonals, an economic calendar that has a low bar for disappointment and today’s strong advance are strengthening the odds of a year-end Santa Claus rally as we head into the last week of November and the final month of 2025. Finally, without a Consumer Price Index or another Nonfarm Payrolls before the Fed’s upcoming meeting, the only noteworthy development currently standing in the way of equity bulls is the significant technical damage in the charts of the past several weeks.

International Roundup

Singapore Prices, Economy Expand Faster than Expected

Singapore price pressures accelerated y/y to 1.2% in October but were unchanged month over month (m/m), according to the Consumer Price Index. In September, the two metrics were up 0.7% and 0.4%.

With the most recent m/m print, the housing and utilities category and the household durables and services categories experienced 1.5% and 0.3% declines, offsetting the impact of inflation elsewhere. Categories with price increases and the extent of the changes were as follows:

• Recreation, sports and culture, 1.3%
• Transport, 1.1%
• Health, 1%
• Miscellaneous goods and services, 0.9%
• Information and communications, 0.5%
• Food, 0.3%
• Education, 0.1%

For October, the health category and the transport classification led the y/y headline increase, with prices up 4% and 3.4%, respectively.

Singapore’s core CPI, which excludes the costs of accommodations and private transport, also accelerated, climbing 1.2% y/y from 0.4%. On Friday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) reported third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.2%, slowing from the preceding three-month 4.4% pace, but arriving much faster than the 2.9% from the preliminary read. The MTI also upgraded its 2025 forecast to “around 4%” after previously estimating growth of 1.5% to 2.5%. For 2026, its GDP estimate ranges from 1% to 3%.

Japan Unveils Stimulus Program

Japan Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.4 billion) spending program that included a 17.7 trillion supplemental budget, the largest stimulus program since the Covid-19 era. It also includes 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts. Takaichi maintains higher-than-expected tax revenues and non-tax income will pay for the increased spending and any remaining funding shortage will be covered by a bond issuance. The news caused the yen to sink to near its lowest level in 10 months while long-term government bond yields soared. The country’s legislative chamber must approve the supplemental portion of the proposal. 

Corporate Profits Reverse Decline in Canada

Canadian corporate profits grew 3.8% quarter over quarter (q/q) during the three months ended in September following a 1.7% decline in the preceding period, according to Statistics Canada. Profits were up 5.1% year over year (y/y). Relative to the second quarter, financial industry earnings jumped 6% with 7 out of 13 categories reporting increases. The banking and other depository credit intermediation industry led with a 10.1% gain due to lower credit loss provisions, higher non-interest income and better net interest income. Manufacturing earnings also strengthened, climbing 6.6% with higher motor vehicle sales and better efficiencies. Other categories with notable increases included the following:

• Mining and quarrying excluding oil and gas, up 24.8% with higher metal prices supporting results
• Arts, entertainment and recreation, up 4.1%, a result of record high tourism revenue during the summer from vacationers choosing to travel domestically
• Pharmaceutical, medicine, soap, agricultural chemicals, paint and other chemicals, up 7.8% in response to strong revenues

Conversely, transportation profits slipped 5.9% due to labor disruptions in aviation. While construction results descended 4.4% due to higher input causing a work stoppage.

But October Manufacturing Sales Sink

Canada’s manufacturing sales sank 1.1% in October, according to preliminary data from Statistics Canada. The wood and chemical subsectors experienced the largest declines.

And Railway Freight Weakens

Canadian railways experienced a 0.7% y/y decline in tons of shipped freight in September. Rail shipping was also down 0.1% year to date through September. A strong wheat crop caused agriculture freight to grow y/y, but the result didn’t fully offset the impact of lower demand from US rail connections and the trade dispute between the two North American countries dampened cross-border commerce.