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Odds of Greenland Becoming Part of the US Double Following Maduro Arrest: Jan. 5, 2026

Odds of Greenland Becoming Part of the US Double Following Maduro Arrest: Jan. 5, 2026

Posted January 6, 2026 at 8:50 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

The odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US rose significantly on Monday, Jan. 5, following this weekend’s events in Venezuela. Indeed, the 8% probability on Jan. 2 climbed to as high as 17% on Monday against the backdrop of greater chances that Washington will seek to expand its influence in regions with significant geopolitical value. President Trump told reporters that “we need Greenland from the standpoint of national security.” Meanwhile, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, prime minister of the autonomous Denmark constituent, continued to dismiss the US commander in chief by calling his desire a fantasy. The developments occur as the world order shifts, with Moscow and Russia, allies of Caracas, having ambitions of their own, namely in Kyiv and Taipei.

Odds of Greenland Becoming Part of the US Double Following Maduro Arrest: Jan. 5, 2026

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 5, 2026. Time until expiration is also as of Jan. 5, 2026. 

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