UMich “Nos” Predictive Contract For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026

In the US, the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index hit 48.5 on Friday, May 8, and the final revision will be published two weeks from that day. In consideration of the absolute median and average differences between the first and second versions historically being at 0.7 and 1, purchasing “Nos” IBKR predictive market contracts with thresholds above the 48.5 offers attractive risk-reward opportunities, in my opinion. Top of mind is the “No” at 50, which would require a rare upgrade of 1.6 to lose money.

Forecast Contract - Will the US Consumer Sentiment Index exceed 50 in May 2026?

Forecast contracts - US Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment, Difference between Initial and Final, Line Chart 2015 - 2026. Source - University of Michigan, Interactive brokers. Note, Monthly Data are non-seasonally adjusted as of April 2026

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 8, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of the morning of May 8, 2026.

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Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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