The economic calendar has begun to slowly normalize following the blockage of critical data due to the record-long US government shutdown. And with the return of pivotal statistics, we’re witnessing a comeback in forecast orders tied to the results of economic indicators, including home sales and residential building permit volumes.
New Home Sales to Slow
IBKR Forecast Traders and the Wall Street consensus estimate expect a huge slowdown in new home sales in the US. The 800k seasonally adjusted annualized units (SAAU) from August are expected to fall to around 673k in the former source, which is calculated by the coin-flip level between the 71% “Yes” at 650k and the 40% Yes at 700k. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg median across surveyed economists is at 710k.
Prices To Remain Steady However
Forecast traders expect the median price of those new homes sold in the US to remain near August’s $413.5k, since the “Yes” and “No” contract pricing at $410k and $415 of $0.57 and $0.66 indicate a coin-flip level between those two thresholds.
Estimates Are Neck and Neck for US Permits
Turning to building permits, the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.34 million SAAU is neck and neck with the 1.34 million coin-flip level on the IBKR ForecastTrader. A result in-line with expectations would mark a modest increase from August’s 1.33 million.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 25, 2025. Dates will expiration as also as of morning of Nov. 25, 2025
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