The US decline to a 4.4% unemployment rate in December accompanied with accelerating wage pressures as detailed in the Friday, Jan. 9 Jobs Report is strengthening the chances that the Fed will pause at its meeting next month. Reduced joblessness paired with faster expansions in paychecks are lessening the need for imminent monetary policy accommodation as investors look forward to future meetings for a move lower in the central bank’s benchmark. Indeed, the 86% low as it relates to a steady Fed from Jan. 3, strengthened to a high of 97% as of Friday, Jan. 9, following the release of the labor market data.
Sentiment Revisions Are Historically Modest There’s a very low chance that this morning’s consumer sentiment print will be revised by +2.1 from 54 to 56.1 or higher when the final print is released in slightly less than two weeks. In the last 12 years, a revision of that magnitude has only happened a handful of
times (please see chart below.) The IBKR ForecastTrader platform has contracts with various thresholds for this metric.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 9, 2026. Contract time to expiration is also as of Jan. 9, 2026
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