US Job Growth Surprises With Lower Unemployment

What’s going on here?

US job growth beat expectations in June, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 147,000 and unemployment falling to 4.1%.

What does this mean?

The job market delivered an unexpected boost, surpassing predictions with strong employment figures. But the ADP National Employment Report’s drop in private payrolls marked a rare shift after two years of growth. Mixed market reactions followed: S&P E-minis edged up 0.18%, 10-year US Treasury yields rose by 6.7 basis points, and the dollar climbed against major currencies. Stable hourly wages reflect a healthy job sector, yet economists are debating the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Some expect a rate cut in September, while others point to the rise in discouraged workers as a concern.

Why should I care?

For markets: A delicate balancing act.

The robust job market might lead the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts. Investors should watch the bond market, as rising yields call for caution. While strong data hints at stability, potential volatility needs careful observation.

The bigger picture: Reading between the lines of growth.

Job figures show economic strength, but increasing discouraged workers and the gap between openings and employment spark concern. These trends could impact long-term policies, requiring a balance between growth and employment issues to maintain momentum.

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Originally Posted on July 3, 2025 – US Job Growth Surprises With Lower Unemployment