BIMI – the next emerging power play?

Originally Posted, 9 May 2024 – BIMI – the next emerging power play?

The FTSE BIMI Index, a gateway to emerging market powerhouses. Our analysis reveals how BIMI’s diverse economies offer a unique blend of investment opportunities, backed by robust economic growth and market trends.

• The FTSE BIMI Index represents a mix of emerging market economies with high growth potential.
• BIMI’s stock markets offer a range of investment opportunities, complementing each other’s strengths.
• FTSE Russell’s client-centric approach positions the FTSE BIMI Index as a crucial tool for accessing emerging market leaders.

In 2001, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill popularised the concept of the “BRICs” (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) as a grouping of the emerging market (“EM”) power-house economies of the future. But with the Russian equity market continuing to face accessibility issues because of sanctions (Russia was moved to “unclassified” under the FTSE Russell country classification system in 2022) and with an increasing number of investors preferring to view China as a separate allocation, has the idea of an attractive EM equity bloc disappeared?

The answer may lay with “BIMI” – a complex that contains the largest four emerging economies beyond China ranked by GDP – namely Brazil, India, Mexico, and Indonesia.  

FTSE Russell has recently developed the FTSE BIMI Index, a market cap-weighted index representing the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks from the BIMI complex, to support investors seeking this focused exposure.

Exhibit 1:  BIMI complex represents the largest 4 EM economies after China

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024. Based on “Gross domestic product, current prices” data points.  No forecast available for Pakistan’s 2029E GDP.  “EM” universe based on the 24 countries classified as Advanced Emerging and Secondary Emerging status by FTSE Russell as of 31 December 2023. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Exhibit 2:  The FTSE BIMI Index outperformed the FTSE Emerging Index and the FTSE Emerging ex China Index

Source: FTSE Russell, as of 29 March 2024. Indices rebased to 100 as of 31 Dec 2004.  Represents total return in US dollar terms. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Structural factors favour EM allocations

Against a backdrop of weaker global demand and continuing strength in the US dollar, investors have been reluctant in recent years to allocate to emerging markets.  

However, structural factors support the case for the strongest emerging economies to shine: supply chain relocation, rising domestic demand, near-shoring preferences and the need for critical raw materials are all playing a part in this mindset shift.  

In fact, emerging markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience in this environment, with post-Covid GDP growth maintained at around 4% in 2022 and 2023, a rate that the latest IMF estimates suggest will continue. With growth driven by the large EM countries like those in the BIMI complex, we can expect BIMI’s share of world GDP to rise over the coming years.

Exhibit 3:  BIMI’s GDP share of the world is expected to rise while the share from the EM ex China ex BIMI universe is likely to remain static

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024. Based on “Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) share of world total” data points.  “EM” universe based on the 24 countries classified as Advanced Emerging and Secondary Emerging status by FTSE Russell as of 31 December 2023. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

The four economies in the BIMI complex are diverse, each with its unique macro backdrop and characteristics.  

From Brazil’s commodity- and dividend-rich market to India’s consumption and technological growth, to Mexico’s near-shoring opportunity and Indonesia’s rising importance in the EV battery supply chain, the BIMI complex offers investors a range of opportunities.

Brazil: commodity and dividend rich market 

Brazil is home to abundant natural resources, ranging from oil and iron ore to ethanol. It is also one of the world’s largest agricultural and food exporters with its top export being soybeans. Brazil also offers a dividend-rich investment profile, with a current overall dividend yield of over 8% across its large- and mid-cap stocks. With its target rate at 10.75% and inflation dipping back into the target range, there is room for a looser monetary policy which could be favourable for equity investments.  

Despite a strong rally of 34.2% in 2023 in US dollar terms (of which approximately 9% represented FX gains), the valuation of large- and mid-cap Brazilian stocks is still some way below historical averages: the 12-month forward P/E ratio of 7.7 at the end of March 2024 compares with a long-term average of 10.1. 

Exhibit 4:  Brazil’s equity market valuation

Source: FTSE Russell, as of 29 March 2024. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Mexico: beneficiary of nearshoring

Meanwhile, Mexico is a prime beneficiary of nearshoring in a world of supply chain reorganization, particularly given its proximity to the United States, the world’s largest economy. Together with the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade accord established in 2020, the shift towards nearshoring allowed Mexico to surpass China as the top exporter overall to the US in 2023. With most key automobile companies already having set up plants in Mexico, the country’s top exports are cars. Over 77% of car exports were destined for the US in 2023, according to the Mexican Automotive Manufacturers Association. 

The foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Mexico induced by nearshoring are expected to renew large-scale industrial spending in the near term. This could potentially trigger a healthy growth cycle for Mexico, resulting in longer term benefits spreading to other industries such as utilities, technology, and consumers.  

With manufacturing comprising around 40% of Mexico’s economy, the benefits of nearshoring to Mexico are clearly visible.  The FTSE Mexico Index rose 40% in US dollar terms in 2023 (helped by approximately 15% in FX gains), even outperforming the US equity market by 14%.

Exhibit 5: Mexico’s exports to the US grew rapidly in recent years 

Source:  LSEG Workspace, Banco de Mexico, as of April 2024. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

The redrawing of supply chains is providing an exciting window of opportunity for Mexico. The same trend is also benefiting India and Indonesia.

India: a gateway to growth

India overtook China as the world’s most populous country last year. Among the 24 countries classified as emerging status by FTSE Russell, India saw the fastest growth in 2023 at 7.8%. The country is also expected to deliver 6.4-6.8% GDP growth rate in the coming years, the highest in the EM complex, according to IMF estimates. India’s equity market has risen quickly in rankings to become the fourth largest in the world by early 2024. The country’s growing importance to the global economy has been reflected in its increased weighting in EM benchmarks and in the FTSE BIMI Index: in 2001, the FTSE BIMI Index contained only 40 Indian large- and mid-cap stocks with an aggregate weighting of 11.4%, whereas by March 2024 the index contained 228 Indian stocks, representing 65.6% of the overall exposure.  

Indian equities enjoyed a strong return of 25.8% in 2023 in US dollar terms. While valuations may currently look stretched, India’s corporate earnings remain robust with analysts forecasting mid-teens future earnings growth rates.  

India’s favourable demographics and its rising middle class are expected to propel domestic consumption. Industries like consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health care and telecommunications – currently aggregating over 27% of the FTSE India Index – ought to benefit. In addition, amidst the ongoing global digital transformation, India’s large technology companies focusing on software development, IT consulting and business process outsourcing may see further growth.

Exhibit 6: India is forecasted to be the fastest growing economy in the world  

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2024.. Based on “Gross domestic product, constant prices” data points.  “Emerging market and developing economies” and “World” as defined by IMF to represent EM economies and global economies. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Indonesia: rising role in EV supply chain

Indonesia, the largest South-East Asian economy, has consistently delivered a c.5% yoy growth over the past decade (except in 2020 and 2021 when impacted by Covid-19) and is expected to continue this growth pattern in the next few years, according to IMF estimates.  

Albeit still heavy in its exposure to banks, Indonesia’s equity market is gradually changing shape.  Indonesia is gradually flexing its muscles to stay relevant in today’s world.  As the second-largest producer of cobalt globally and equipped with the world’s largest nickel reserves, Indonesia has started catching investor interest as the country embarks on its journey to becoming one of the top three producers of electric vehicle (EV) batteries by 2027. In the FTSE BIMI Index, the number of Indonesian companies engaging in nickel mining and processing (as part of the Basic Materials industry) rose from just one at the end of 2022 to four at the end of March 2024.

Exhibit 7: Indonesia owns the world’s largest nickel reserves

Source: Statista Global nickel reserves by country 2023 | Statista, as of 2023. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Four diverse economies bring together a complementary package of opportunities

In summary, BIMI’s stock markets together present exciting and complementary opportunities for investors, driven by economic growth and favourable trends.  

At FTSE Russell, we take a client-centric approach to help you excel in a changing world – and the FTSE BIMI Index might just be the index that you need to access the next generation of EM powerhouses. 

Exhibit 8: BIMI economies provide investors with a complementary package of opportunities

Source:  FTSE Russell, as of end March 2024. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

Exhibit 9: FTSE BIMI Index’s valuation is reasonable

Source:  FTSE Russell, as of end March 2024. Please see the disclaimers for important legal disclosures. – Past performance is not indicative of future results

For more information, see FTSE Global Equity Index Series (GEIS) | LSEG and the FTSE BIMI Index factsheet.