On Saturday and Sunday, December 6 and 7, ForecastEx trading volumes exceeded 13 million contracts. The daily high temperatures across major US cities, the price of bitcoin and this Wednesday’s Fed decision were some of the themes with the greatest engagement. Interest is building on this week’s verdict on rates from the US central bank, with approximately 380k contracts open that are tied to the event. Transactions were poised to increase significantly as settlement approached. Indeed, growing participation as we approach expiry is a trend we’ve seen during past monetary policy meetings that I expect to continue.
But the Expected Cut Will Feature Disagreement
The widely expected Wednesday cut from the Fed is poised to feature disagreement, however, as there were just 3% on Monday of having no dissenters at the meeting. Indeed, Governor Stephen Miran will likely favor a deeper reduction of 50 basis points, while others on the committee are going to point to 3% inflation as evidence that the economy is overheating and that it doesn’t need accommodation. There is an 8%, 28%, 40% and 18% probability of exactly 1, 2, 3 and 4 voting members that formally disagree with the decision.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Hassett Still Favored to Be Next Chair
As of Monday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still strongly favored to be nominated as the next Chair of the Fed even though his odds dropped from a record high of 90% to 76%. Trailing him were Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Scott Bessent and Michelle Bowman, with probabilities of 9%, 5%, 5% and 4%. Approximately 20k contracts were open on Monday that were tied to President Trump’s decision.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: ForecastEx – Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Note: Prices were highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 8, 2025. Days till expiration were also as of Dec. 8, 2025.
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