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Warsh Takes the Lead in Fed Chair Contract: Dec. 16, 2025

Warsh Takes the Lead in Fed Chair Contract: Dec. 16, 2025

Posted December 17, 2025 at 8:45 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh captured the lead on Tuesday in the race to become the Fed chair nomination with the probabilities shown on ForecastEx of him securing the slot hitting the highest of the candidates. Meanwhile, news that President Trump will hold a few more meetings with several candidates bolstered current Governor Christopher Waller’s chances to 9% as on Tuesday, placing him in third place. The Kevins are still neck and neck, however, with one at 46% and the other at 41%. There are approximately 40k contracts connected to the commander in chief’s decision.

Will President Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?
Will President Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?
Will President Trump nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair?

ForecastEx Sees Broad Participation on Monday

Monday’s trading volume on ForecastEx totaled 2.69 million, which was dominated by the daily high temperatures across major US cities. But other themes with overall transactions of 10k or higher included the prices of Bitcoin and Solana the US and Hong Kong dollar currency pair.  

Will the highest temperature in Miami exceed 75 F on December 16, 2025?
Will Bitcoin's price exceed $85,000 on December 31/2025 at 4 PM CT?
Will Solana's price exceed $145 on December 31, 2025 at 4 PM CT?
Will the USD/HKD exchange rate exceed 7.779 on December 19, 2025?

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 16, 2025. Time to expiration is also as of Dec. 16.

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here

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