Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s decision to formally dissent Wednesday against the central bank’s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged improved his odds of being nominated as chair. Indeed, his chances doubled from a low of 9% on Wednesday, Jan 28 to a high of 18% on Thursday, Jan. 29, before paring that advance and standing at around 12% in the early afternoon. His likelihood of being chosen to the top spot sat in the basement on Saturday, Jan. 24, meanwhile, with his prospects at only 4%. Colleague Stephen Miran also disagreed with the hold verdict and favored a reduction of the same 25-basis point magnitude.
Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
Eurozone Hasn’t Exceeded 0.4% GDF Growth for 12 Quarters
The Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product result hasn’t exceeded 0.4% for 13 consecutive quarters and none of the 40 forecasters in the Reuters monthly poll before the Friday, Jan. 30 release thought it would happen. Indeed, the median estimate was 0.2%, against the backdrop of a minimum and maximum of 0.1% and 0.4%. ForecastTrader offered contracts with a variety of thresholds, including 0.4%.
Eurozone Unemployment Near Fair Value Though
The Eurozone’s unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%, although a few of the surveyed economists penciled in a climb to 6.4%. The IBKR ForecastTrader on Thursday pointed to a 30% probability of an outcome arriving at 6.2% or under. A jump above 6.4% was relatively out of the cards.
Higher Oil Prices Lead to Heavier Baltic Dry
The recent increase in the Baltic Dry Index is unlikely to reverse drastically to 1,825 or under because oil prices are up 4% on Thursday, Jan. 29. The figure was poised to rise from this Thursday morning’s level of 2,016. The contract with a “Yes” for a number above 1,825 expected for the Friday, Jan. 30 reading was prices at $0.88.
SORA Is Volatile
The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) for Friday was expected to come in at or under 1.3% with a 64% degree of certainty, although the benchmark has been highly volatile lately.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026. Time until market close was also as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026.
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